The decision to deploy long-range missiles in Europe has reignited Cold War-era tensions with Russia, sparking fears of an arms race and geopolitical instability.

The recent joint declaration by the U.S. and Germany at the NATO summit, indicating that the U.S. will begin deploying long-range fire capabilities of its Multi-Domain Task Force in Germany by 2026, has stirred significant tension with Moscow. The hopes of reducing animosities, nurtured during the final years of the Cold War and culminating in the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, now seem distant memories, particularly after the U.S.’s withdrawal from the treaty under the Trump administration in 2019. The geopolitical rift widened significantly following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, exacerbating Russian fears of Western encirclement.

This new NATO declaration represents another step in European resistance to Russian military actions in Ukraine. Notably, the declaration was made without the involvement of other European nations, although Italy’s prime minister confirmed that Italy would co-host the long-range missiles at the U.S. base in Sicily. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hailed the move as a critical enhancement to Germany’s security strategy, despite significant domestic and international criticism over concerns it could increase Germany’s vulnerability to attack. This decision stands in stark contrast to NATO’s controversial 1979 decision to deploy ground-launched cruise missiles and Pershing ballistic missiles, which met with massive public opposition and antiwar protests across Europe. So far, the recent U.S.-German announcement has not provoked a similarly hostile public response.

Moscow has predictably condemned the declaration, viewing it as part of a broader strategy to undermine Russian interests. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov issued a stark warning to Berlin, suggesting that Moscow will not downplay the threat posed by NATO, as it challenges Russia’s security architecture.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has dismissed the move as a severe threat to Russia. The Cold War-era policy of containment, which played a vital role in U.S. and European strategies against Soviet aggression, seems to be experiencing a revival. U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan stated, “What we are deploying to Germany is a defensive capability like many other defensive capabilities we have deployed across the alliance, across the decades.” Sullivan added, “So more Russian saber-rattling obviously is not going to deter us from doing what we think is necessary to keep the alliance as strong as possible.”

The critical question now is whether these deployments will exacerbate regional security tensions in Europe or enhance the continent’s security equilibrium. From a realist perspective in international relations, one could argue that the missiles will strengthen NATO’s deterrence capabilities, particularly in the face of a potential Russian offensive. The long-range missiles have the capability to reach deep into Russian territory, posing a substantial threat to Moscow’s strategic interests.

In the context of modern hybrid warfare—employed extensively by Russia, involving misinformation and cyber-attacks—NATO’s decision to deploy long-range missiles is reminiscent of Eisenhower’s “New Look” strategy, which emphasized a strong nuclear deterrent and air power to counter Soviet ground forces. This move seems more effective as a deterrent than the series of sanctions imposed by the West, which have failed to significantly hinder Russia’s military-industrial complex due to its alliances with China, Iran, and North Korea.

However, the reintroduction of long-range missiles to Germany also risks further deteriorating relations between Moscow and Berlin. Germany’s reliance on Russian energy during Angela Merkel’s tenure, culminating in the halting of the Nord Stream 2 project in 2022, already strained relations. Allegations of Russian espionage activities in Berlin have only exacerbated the situation. Within Germany, the decision to host these missiles has faced intense criticism, with opposition parties warning that it could trigger an arms race, making Germany a pawn in broader geopolitical struggles.

The escalating arms race in Europe is a concerning development, potentially heralding a new cold war between Russia and the West. As Germany and other European nations acquire supersonic missiles from U.S. suppliers, ostensibly as a deterrent against Russian aggression, they also risk inflaming Russian paranoia, making Germany a primary target. Peskov has asserted that Russia is prepared to counter these U.S. plans, warning that European capitals could find themselves caught in a renewed arms race. This development threatens to deepen the divide and may prompt Russia to solidify its alliances with China, Iran, and North Korea against the West.