Aviation is officially soaring once again.

The latest quarterly results from major airlines reveal a resurgent industry. British Airways’ parent company, IAG, posted a “bumper” summer with profits rising by 15%. Meanwhile, Germany’s Lufthansa reported its strongest revenue quarter in history, with €10.7 billion in fares booked. Across the board, other airlines have delivered similarly robust returns.

Adding to the optimism, revenue projections for the upcoming holiday season remain strong, signaling the pandemic’s waning impact on the world’s leading airlines. Even in the discount sector, companies like Dublin-based Ryanair forecast high demand for Christmas travel.

Yet, storm clouds linger on the horizon. Air France-KLM’s latest results underscore a pressing issue: staffing costs remain stubbornly high. Compounding matters is the overwhelming demand for new aircraft, with manufacturers struggling to fulfill orders despite Boeing recently resolving its industrial dispute. Could this scarcity of planes ground the aviation industry’s recovery?

The threat is real.

Boeing’s labor dispute is a stark reminder that even the savviest airline executives are often hostage to unpredictable external forces. Even the famously combative Michael O’Leary had to concede defeat earlier this month as Ryanair apologized for flight cancellations caused by air traffic control shortages across Europe. Looming labor challenges, including a shortage of experienced pilots, only add to the turbulence ahead.

While Boeing’s strike has ended, it’s evident that aircraft availability will remain a critical bottleneck for the industry’s growth. Layered on top of this uncertainty is the potential global economic impact of Donald Trump’s return to the White House. His tariff policies and handling of ongoing geopolitical instability could further disrupt fragile economic conditions.

Navigating this precarious landscape will demand not just experience but ingenuity for veterans like IAG’s Luis Gallego and entrepreneurial leaders like Ryanair’s O’Leary. Nowhere will this be more critical than in the so-called “discount” segment of aviation, where tight margins leave little room for error.

The term “discount” may evoke images of cramped cabins and irritable passengers, but some of the industry’s sharpest minds helm these airlines. Breaking into and thriving within the aviation sector on razor-thin margins requires bold leadership and decisive execution. O’Leary is the industry’s most prominent example, but others, like former EasyJet CEO Dame Carolyn McCall, have also left their mark.

During her tenure, McCall capitalized on opportunities by acquiring assets from struggling rivals like Air Berlin and Alitalia, transforming EasyJet into Ryanair’s fiercest competitor. Her successor, Johan Lundgren, has maintained the airline’s edge, and now, former TUI Travel executive Kenton Jarvis is preparing to take the helm.

The looming aircraft shortage may trigger a new wave of consolidation among discount carriers, with the strongest poised to absorb weaker rivals. Airlines saddled with inexperienced or ineffective leadership will be especially vulnerable.

Some cracks are already showing. Italy’s AeroItalia, a relative newcomer to the market, has drawn criticism for poor service and operational missteps. Sardinian politician Ugo Cappellacci lambasted the airline and its CEO, Francesco Gaetano Intieri, accusing them of operating with “independence from reality” following AeroItalia’s tumultuous service launch to the island.

Although Cappellacci’s critiques may carry political undertones—Intieri has faced controversy before, including being ousted from a government advisory role—his point is well-taken: passengers will not tolerate substandard service.

For struggling carriers like AeroItalia, leadership is a matter of survival. Recent European aviation history is littered with failed discount airlines, and controversial figures like Intieri, whose past includes diverting company funds for personal use, can only exacerbate investor and passenger unease in challenging times.

As the storm clouds gather, the stakes for premium leadership in the discount aviation sector have never been higher.