A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would “trigger a global catastrophe,” Taiwan’s representative to the European Union and Belgium has warned, arguing that the consequences would reach far beyond the island and the military powers drawn into its defense.

Speaking in Brussels on Wednesday, Shieh Jhy-wey described the prospect of “economic, technological, geopolitical, and human fallout far exceeding the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic or the 2008 financial crisis.” His message to the European audience was that Taiwan’s security cannot be separated from the prosperity of the countries that depend on its technology and the trade passing through its surrounding waters.

Shieh cited Bloomberg Economics research estimating that a full-scale U.S.–China war over Taiwan could cost the global economy approximately $10.6 trillion in its first year, equivalent to roughly 10 percent of global GDP. The estimate describes a modeled scenario, rather than the inevitable cost of any confrontation, but it gives a measure of the economic stakes behind the diplomatic language of deterrence.

The diplomat, who took up his Brussels post just over a year ago, was addressing more than 350 guests at a reception marking the Republic of China’s 115th National Day. He opened his forceful speech by welcoming representatives of the Chinese movement for freedom and democracy, alongside Tibetans, Uyghurs, and Hongkongers.

They were, he said, “representing their people fighting for their country, their hometown and their freedom all over the world.”

Shieh celebrated Taiwan’s “achievement as a vibrant democracy,” while describing decades of pressure from Beijing. He accused China of employing military exercises, cyberattacks, sabotage of undersea cables, disinformation, intimidation, and diplomatic isolation to constrain the island’s freedom of action.

He described those measures as a gray-zone strategy. “On the one hand, they appeal to our sense of family but, on the other, embrace us tightly,” he said.

His comments challenge Beijing’s account of the relationship. China claims sovereignty over Taiwan, which governs itself, and has not ruled out using force to bring the island under its control. Taiwan’s government rejects that claim and maintains that its people should determine their own future. President Xi Jinping has made unification a central political objective, although that ambition should not be confused with a fixed public timetable for an invasion.

Beijing invokes dynastic history and declarations surrounding the end of World War II to support its position. The dispute, however, is not simply an argument about the past. It concerns the future of a democracy whose economic importance vastly exceeds its limited formal diplomatic recognition.

Taiwan maintains diplomatic relations with just 12 allies, including the Holy See. Its semiconductor industry nonetheless sits at the center of global manufacturing. Chips produced on the island power products ranging from smartphones to electric vehicles, while its advanced processors underpin the expansion of artificial intelligence. A war would threaten production, shipping, and access to components on which businesses across the world depend.

Shieh illustrated Taiwan’s position with an exchange he said he had with a journalist on his way to the reception. Asked about a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Xi, the journalist wanted to know whether Taiwan was “on the menu, if not at the table.”

Shieh said Taiwan had been neither. When the journalist pressed him on where, exactly, the island stood, he supplied a different metaphor.

“Taiwan was in the kitchen, as one of the most significant suppliers, holding the key position in the Indo-Pacific Strategic Alliance,” he said.

The image captured the argument running through his address: Taiwan supplies much of the technology that makes other countries’ ambitions possible, even as it struggles to secure a place in their diplomatic conversations. Its manufacturing strength gives the island considerable international importance, but that importance does not automatically translate into formal recognition or political protection.

Asked how the catastrophe he described could be prevented, Shieh offered a direct answer: “Deterrence is the key word.”

He argued that sending warships through the Taiwan Strait would deliver “a strong signal” to Beijing in support of international navigation. Such passages would, in his view, demonstrate that other governments have a stake in maintaining access to the waterway and resisting efforts to control it through intimidation.

He also cautioned Europeans against allowing renewed engagement with China to weaken their relationships with Taiwan. Beijing’s promises of mutually beneficial cooperation, he argued, could be accompanied by demands to curtail contacts with the island.

“They are going to blackmail, threaten and intimidate you and ask you to terminate every contact with Taiwan,” he said.

“Under certain circumstances, some could even start to hesitate or doubt their relationship with Taiwan.”

To make his point, he invoked Shakespeare’s Measure for Measure: “Our doubts are traitors, and make us lose the good we oft might win, by fearing to attempt.”

For Shieh, those doubts have consequences beyond bilateral diplomacy. He accused Beijing of trying to exclude Taiwan from international organizations, including the United Nations, and of insisting that the island remain politically invisible.
“According to China, Taiwan should not be seen and should not be heard,” he said.

Even the name under which his office operates reflects those constraints. Taiwan’s mission in Brussels is formally the Taipei Representative Office in the EU and Belgium. Asking Beijing to accept the designation “Taiwan Mission,” he said, was “mission impossible.”

Yet Shieh also recalled a development once considered similarly out of reach: Taiwan’s first direct presidential election in 1996. Three decades later, the island’s democratic institutions remain central to the case it makes for closer relationships with Europe.

He pointed to Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim’s appearance at the European Parliament in November 2025, when she addressed the annual summit of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China. The visit offered a conspicuous example of Taiwan’s efforts to expand its international engagement despite Beijing’s objections.

“China was, of course, furious and protested and protested,” Shieh said.

Michael Gahler, the German European People’s Party lawmaker who chairs the European Parliament’s Taiwan Friendship Group, also addressed the reception. He described Taiwan as a “reliable and democratic” partner for the EU, committed to a rules-based order.

Gahler characterized China’s military pressure across the strait as “intense,” while emphasizing the importance of dialogue. He noted that the EU had resumed parliamentary visits to China, but said that renewed contact “does not change our policy.” His remarks underscored the task facing Europe: sustaining dialogue with Beijing while maintaining a relationship with Taiwan whose democratic and economic importance is increasingly difficult to ignore.