The climate in Honduras is grim, a stifling combination of lethal violence, relentless drought, and corruption allegations threatening to destabilize its nascent government. The week has been particularly unkind, marked by horrific scenes from a women’s prison riot, an ever-deepening energy crisis, and the abrupt departure of a high-profile anti-corruption activist.

At the core of the tragedy is Tuesday’s riot in a women’s prison where at least 46 lives were lost in an inferno of gang rivalries. A brutal dance of automatic gunfire, machete strikes, and an intentionally set blaze painted a ghastly tableau. The question begging for an answer: How could such weaponry find its way into the cells of the incarcerated?

President Xiomara Castro, caught in the maelstrom of public outrage, spoke of her shock at the “monstrous murder of women,” promising “drastic measures” in response. The fallout was swift with Security Minister Ramón Sabillón shown the door, making way for the national police force head, Gustavo Sánchez.

Honduras is considered one of the most dangerous countries in the world due to high levels of gang violence and criminal activity. On Saturday, 13 people were shot dead at a birthday party in Choloma prompting Castro to implement curfews in the town as well as the country’s second-largest city, San Pedro Sula. Such measures have been criticised by locals for being ineffective, arguing that curfews only hurt an already weak economy. Yet, the spectre of corruption looms large over these steps, threatening to undermine their efficacy.

Meanwhile, the nation is on the precipice of a power crisis. The Honduran skies have been uncooperative, and a drought spawned by the El Niño phenomenon has all but decimated the hydroelectric dams. The energy deficit has forced authorities to ration electricity for the entire country, with blackouts lasting up to three hours every few days.

Hondurans, already on edge, have found their patience tested to the breaking point. Protests and highway blockades have flared up across the country, fueled by the regular power cuts. Their plight is exacerbated by the looming threat of food insecurity, with the drought poised to wreak havoc on the region’s grain harvests.

As Honduras grapples with these calamities, an unexpected blow arrived on Sunday. Gabriela Castellanos, the resolute executive director of the National Anti-Corruption Council (CNA), fled the country citing threats to her safety. Castellanos’ departure is a blow to Honduras’ battle against corruption, coming only weeks after she accused Castro’s government of nepotism.

Her exit throws into sharp relief the pervading culture of fear and corruption that stubbornly clings to the country, despite the efforts of its leadership to shake it off. Castro’s government is also involved in an ongoing face-off with the World Bank’s International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) which has only added fuel to the fire.

As Honduras teeters on the precipice of disentangling itself from ICSID – a pillar it has leaned on since 1989, it flirts dangerously with the spectre of economic seclusion. President Castro’s government, audacious as it is, points accusing fingers at ICSID, alleging transgressions of “law and procedure” in the management of an $11 billion claim from the U.S.-based Honduras Próspera.

Such bold manoeuvres send shivers down the spine, the implications as stark as they are far-reaching. Yet, an ironic twist lurks beneath the surface. Castro’s government, despite being embroiled in accusations of corruption, has set its sights on Próspera, a city project rooted in the allegedly corrupt soil of the previous government.

A dizzying game of risk is afoot, with stakes too high for comfort. Will Honduras forfeit Próspera’s infusion of capital and the promise of foreign investment and job creation it brings? Or will it bid adieu to ICSID and brace for the fallout of that decision? Both paths offer rocky terrains.

Honduras already grapples with the shackles of crime and corruption, an unenviable backdrop that paints it an unattractive canvas for foreign investment. Why then, one wonders, would it fan the flames and risk casting off all foreign investment entirely? The answer to that question is as elusive as it is critical, and Honduras’ decision could shape the course of its future in indelible ways.

The Honduran situation is a cocktail of woe: an escalating power crisis, unchecked gang violence, and a vacuum in the fight against corruption. The nation’s fledgling relationship with China might offer some temporary financial relief, but one wonders if this will be enough to temper the brewing storm.