In a dramatic turn of events, more than a thousand demonstrators have converged outside the Indonesian parliament in Jakarta, with similar protests erupting across the nation. The outcry is directed at the legislature’s attempt to rapidly advance a bill that would overturn a recent ruling by the Indonesian Constitutional Court. This ruling, handed down just days ago, has sent shockwaves through the political landscape. It dismantled a long-standing barrier restricting smaller parties and independent candidates from contesting gubernatorial races.

With local and regional elections on the horizon this November, Indonesia’s top court took center stage by clarifying election rules mired in legal challenges. The court’s decision struck down the requirement for parties to secure 20% representation in regional assemblies before fielding candidates in gubernatorial races. This move is poised to open the door for a more diverse range of candidates, thereby injecting new life into the country’s electoral process.

The implications of this ruling are profound, shaking the foundations of Indonesian politics. It effectively curtails the dominance of establishment parties and entrenched political dynasties while simultaneously upending the coalition-building strategies that have long been the hallmark of Indonesian domestic politics. Historically, local and regional parties have tended to align with larger, more powerful parties, eschewing the fielding of their own candidates in favor of backing those with a better chance of winning. However, the court’s latest decision threatens to disrupt this established norm, potentially emboldening smaller parties to field candidates even when their chances of victory are slim.

Amid this political upheaval, incumbent President Joko Widodo, barred from seeking a third term after serving two five-year terms, is set to step down. His defense minister, Prabowo Subianto, a former army general, emerged victorious in the February 2024 general election, securing nearly 60% of the vote alongside his vice-presidential running mate, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, Widodo’s eldest son.

The lead-up to the February 2024 election was fraught with controversy, echoing the unrest seen in recent weeks. The Constitutional Court’s previous amendment allowed Gibran, the former Mayor of Surakarta, to run on the presidential ticket despite being underage. The court introduced a clause permitting candidates with five years of regional leadership experience to bypass the age requirement, further stoking the flames of controversy.

Subianto and Gibran, despite Subianto’s role in Widodo’s cabinet, ran under the banner of the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra). Their alliance, bolstered by endorsements from ten other political parties, drew support from across the political spectrum. Notably, Gibran’s political journey saw him transition from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P)—his father’s party—adding another layer of intrigue to the election dynamics.

As the November inauguration of Subianto and Gibran approaches, the nation’s focus has shifted to the forthcoming regional elections, with particular attention on Anies Baswedan, the former Governor of Jakarta. Baswedan, who was Subianto’s opponent in the 2024 presidential election, is again vying for the Jakarta governorship. His candidacy parallels Widodo’s trajectory, as Widodo also served as Governor of Jakarta before ascending to the presidency. Baswedan’s independent bid in the 2024 election garnered 25% of the vote, and many speculate that a successful term as Governor could position him for another presidential run.

However, the coalition formed by Subianto, Gibran, and Widodo has worked tirelessly to keep Baswedan off the ballot—a move that, if successful, would likely secure Subianto a second five-year term and clear the way for Gibran to eventually ascend to the presidency. The now-reversed election rules had required candidates to secure the endorsement of at least 20% of the regional parliament, a hurdle that, while not insurmountable in Indonesia’s complex landscape of political deal-making and coalition-building, was a significant barrier for Baswedan. The alliance of ten of Indonesia’s eleven regional parties with Subianto and Gibran effectively shut Baswedan out of the race.

In response to what many viewed as an attempt by the political elite to entrench their power, the Indonesian Constitutional Court intervened, removing these restrictions in what was widely seen as a necessary move to safeguard democracy. Yet, Subianto’s Advanced Indonesia Coalition in parliament quickly countered by attempting to pass legislation that would amend the constitution, thereby barring Baswedan and other challengers from running. This legislation also likely aimed to formalize lower age limits for office, a change that would benefit Widodo’s younger son, Kaesang Pangarep, an entrepreneur and YouTuber who is planning to contest a mayoral seat despite being underage.

The parliamentary maneuvers, which some describe as a U-turn, were ultimately halted, possibly due to a lack of quorum. As protests against these undemocratic reforms grow across Indonesia, public outrage has increasingly focused on Widodo, with many accusing him of “destroying democracy” in the world’s third-largest democracy.

If Subianto’s coalition persists in its efforts to change the rules in its favor, Indonesia may find itself in the midst of a full-blown constitutional crisis. The potential passage of this legislation would entrench the ruling coalition’s power and accelerate the erosion of democratic norms in Indonesia.

The recent history of protests in Kenya and Bangladesh looms large, where public pressure forced significant political changes. The risks for Widodo and President-elect Subianto are considerable as they navigate these turbulent waters.

Blue posters emblazoned with the words “Emergency Warning” and Indonesia’s symbolic national eagle have gone viral on social media, reflecting the growing anti-coalition sentiment. Indonesians are increasingly alarmed by the direction of their country’s politics, with many questioning what the future holds for their democracy.