The Biggest Obstacles to Lasting Peace in Somalia
Peter Drucker, the pioneering management consultant, famously began his work with corporations by asking a deceptively simple question: “What business are you in?” He discovered that many organizations—governmental and corporate alike—struggled to articulate their purpose. If we apply Drucker’s principle to Somalia, a troubling reality emerges: neither its people nor its government seem fully aware of the fundamental business of governance. Somalia remains a nation unsure of its identity, responsibilities, and the essential tenets of leadership.
Despite Somalia’s linguistic, religious, and ethnic homogeneity, its political landscape remains fractured. The responsibilities of leadership, the constraints of power, and the concept of accountability—principles essential for a functioning state—are often overlooked or disregarded. The country’s last clear legal framework, the 1960 constitution, was eroded by two decades of military dictatorship, which replaced governance with centralized control. Successive leaders have since sought to centralize power further, discarding Somalia’s traditional methods of consensus-building in favor of a rigid, hierarchical approach. In doing so, they have left the nation vulnerable—both to internal misrule and external exploitation by those with vested interests in its instability.
The Burden of the 4.5 Power-Sharing Formula
At the heart of Somalia’s dysfunction is the 4.5 power-sharing formula, a system that divides political representation among major clans while allocating limited influence to minority groups. Initially imposed as a temporary measure, it has instead become a structural impediment to national unity and progress. By prioritizing clan identity over merit, it entrenches division and rewards political patronage, effectively turning governance into an ethnic balancing act rather than a functional system that serves the people.
The consequences of this deeply flawed system are evident: the country remains in a perpetual state of internal conflict, with regional clashes in Puntland, Somaliland, Jubaland, and Hirshabelle. These are not random outbreaks of violence but symptoms of a broader design—one that benefits those who profit from chaos and disorder. Clan allegiances now supersede national loyalty, and personal ambition thrives under the guise of communal representation. The longer Somalia clings to this formula, the further it strays from the possibility of a cohesive, functional state.
Governance in Disrepair
Decades of turmoil have dismantled Somalia’s institutions, yet rather than rebuilding them, political elites manipulate governance structures for personal gain. The constitution remains incomplete, leaving the legal framework ambiguous. The judiciary lacks independence, leading to selective justice and widespread impunity. Parliament has become a marketplace where votes and favors are bought and sold to the highest bidder. The current administration, like its predecessors, has used bribery to push through constitutional amendments that serve its own interests rather than those of the nation, further weakening the foundation of democratic governance.
Compounding this instability is the absence of genuine reconciliation. Since 2012, successive governments have failed to foster national unity, choosing instead to navigate Somalia’s political landscape through transactional alliances that prioritize power over peace.
Some outsiders argue that Somalia functions better without centralized governance, pointing to its vibrant informal economy as evidence of resilience. But this romanticization ignores the reality: Somalia once had free public education, universal healthcare, and equitable employment opportunities. Today, corruption and misinformation have buried that history, leaving a generation unaware of what was lost. The systematic dismantling of national institutions has not led to a freer society, but rather one where corruption is normalized, justice is elusive, and the future remains uncertain.
The Lingering Trauma of War
Dillon Carroll, historian and author of Invisible Wounds, underscores how wars leave lasting psychological scars. Somalia has been at war with itself for decades, battling internal strife, external invasions, and religious extremism. Generations have witnessed family members killed before their eyes, entire villages razed, and livelihoods destroyed. Many have been displaced across the globe, seeking safety in foreign lands. Yet, mental health remains a taboo subject, leaving trauma unaddressed and untreated.
The ongoing violence is not just a security issue—it is a humanitarian crisis that extends beyond the battlefield. Suicide bombings, famine, and political neglect continue to devastate the population. Despite this, Somalis endure. Their resilience is remarkable, but survival should not be the only aspiration of a people with such a rich cultural and historical legacy. A country cannot heal if it refuses to acknowledge and address the wounds of its past. Without a concerted effort to provide mental health support and national healing initiatives, Somalia will remain a nation haunted by the ghosts of its unresolved conflicts.
An Economy in Crisis
Somalia’s economic challenges are staggering. With a population of 32 million—70% of whom are under 30—over 60% remain unemployed. Farming and pastoralism, once the backbone of the economy, are no longer viable for many due to climate change. Land disputes, shrinking resources, and insecurity make it nearly impossible for individuals to sustain themselves. Meanwhile, foreign fishing fleets plunder Somalia’s waters, branding local fishermen as pirates when they resist. The unchecked exploitation of Somalia’s natural resources, coupled with weak governance, has deepened economic despair and created fertile ground for extremist recruitment.
The government’s financial infrastructure is equally dire. Dependence on foreign aid has fostered a culture of corruption, where funds intended for development are often diverted into private pockets. International loans and grants, meant to rebuild the nation, are frequently siphoned off by political elites. The result is a country where modern buildings rise in Mogadishu, financed by stolen money, while basic infrastructure—roads, healthcare, sanitation—remains in a state of decay. Garbage piles up in the streets, resembling small mountains, as government negligence exacerbates urban squalor.
The World Bank and the IMF publish economic data on Somalia, but these figures paint an incomplete picture. With unreliable national records and widespread tax evasion, the true state of the economy is difficult to quantify. What is clear, however, is that Somalia’s governance model is fundamentally broken—its leaders prioritize self-enrichment over economic reform, perpetuating cycles of poverty and dependence.
A Call for Structural Change
While external forces have contributed to destabilizing Somalia, the primary responsibility for change lies with Somalis themselves. A functioning government cannot be built on a foundation of clan-based division, corruption, and short-term political maneuvering. The nation’s political elite must abandon the 4.5 power-sharing formula, re-establish the rule of law, and commit to national reconciliation. Without these fundamental reforms, Somalia will remain trapped in a cycle of conflict, poverty, and exploitation, unable to realize its potential.
The country’s future depends on a collective awakening—a realization that governance is not just a means to power, but a responsibility to the people. True leadership will require dismantling the existing order and replacing it with a system that prioritizes stability, meritocracy, and national unity. Until then, the obstacles to peace will persist, and Somalia’s long-awaited recovery will remain just out of reach.