Trump’s return to the presidency brings both hope and uncertainty to South Asia, as his unpredictable diplomacy could reshape regional dynamics with India and Pakistan.

Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in November has sparked global speculation about the direction of his foreign policy. Analysts are engaged in a familiar guessing game, reflecting on the unpredictable—and at times capricious—style that defined his first term.

But the world Trump now reenters is markedly different. The geopolitical chessboard has shifted dramatically: wars and conflict rage in Ukraine, Gaza, and a myriad of other hotspots; tensions between Iran and Israel teeter on the brink of a broader conflict; recent détente between Iran and Saudi Arabia and the Saudi-Houthi reconciliation have reshaped Gulf security dynamics. Meanwhile, Africa sees new alignments, and the U.S.-China rivalry over trade and technology has only intensified.

Trump’s often dark campaign rhetoric reiterated familiar themes: an end to “endless wars” and a steadfast commitment to “America First.” It is widely assumed that his second-term foreign policy will build on this foundation, doubling down on white Christian nationalism, authoritarianism, xenophobia, economic protectionism, and a transactional approach to global alliances.

Nowhere will these priorities be more consequential than in South Asia, a region where Trump’s first term left a complex legacy. At the time, his foreign policy blended transactional diplomacy with strategic balancing, particularly in relationships with India and Pakistan. How Trump 2.0 approaches this region—home to two nuclear powers and critical to U.S. strategic interests—will shape the next chapter of South Asia’s geopolitical narrative.

India: A Strategic Partner with Trade Disputes

During his first term, India emerged as a linchpin of Trump’s South Asia strategy, positioned as a vital counterweight to China’s rising influence. Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi developed a personal rapport, bolstering ties in trade and defense. This partnership saw landmark agreements like the 2020 Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), enhancing military intelligence sharing and strategic cooperation.

Yet, Trump’s relationship with India was far from frictionless. Trade imbalances sparked tensions, as the U.S. imposed tariffs on Indian goods, prompting retaliatory measures. Even so, strategic priorities consistently overshadowed economic discord. Looking ahead, a second Trump term would likely see a continuation of defense and intelligence cooperation, coupled with efforts to renegotiate trade terms more favorable to U.S. interests.

Pakistan: A Legacy of Tumult and Transaction

For Pakistan, Trump’s presidency brought moments of high drama. His administration conditioned economic ties on Pakistan’s counterterrorism efforts, often souring relations. In January 2018, Trump famously accused Pakistan of “lies and deceit” in a scathing tweet, leading to the suspension of $1.3 billion in security aid. However, a thaw followed in 2019, spurred by Pakistan’s pivotal role in the Afghan peace process—a reminder of the transactional nature of Trump’s diplomacy.

As Trump returns to power, Pakistan remains hopeful for a more constructive engagement. There is cautious optimism that his administration will recognize Pakistan’s contributions to counterterrorism and regional stability. However, with other pressing priorities dominating Trump’s agenda, Pakistan may struggle to reclaim its place in U.S. foreign policy unless a major geostrategic shift demands attention.

If Trump does re-engage with Pakistan, he will face a delicate balancing act. Navigating Pakistan’s alignment with China, its fraught relations with India over Kashmir, and its domestic security concerns will require a nuanced approach. His first-term strategy offers clues, emphasizing counterterrorism and regional stability while aligning with broader U.S. objectives.

South Asia’s Future under Trump 2.0

Trump’s return to the White House elicits dread, hope, and anxiety across South Asia. His diplomacy—characterized by bold moves and an often unpredictable style—injects uncertainty into an already volatile region.

In 2017, his administration placed South Asia at the forefront with two significant policy frameworks: the “South Asia Strategy,” focused on resolving the Afghan conflict with roles for India and Pakistan, and the “free and open Indo-Pacific” strategy, promoting a rules-based regional order. Both approaches underscored South Asia’s growing importance in U.S. foreign policy calculations.

A Trump 2.0 presidency for India likely means deeper defense ties and continued alignment against China, tempered by ongoing trade negotiations. For Pakistan, the challenge lies in fostering a relationship grounded in mutual respect while navigating U.S. demands for counterterrorism cooperation and regional stability.

The stakes are high. South Asia’s geopolitical intricacies demand a president capable of balancing competing interests with strategic foresight. Trump’s first term laid a blueprint, but his second may determine whether U.S. influence in the region endures or diminishes. As South Asia braces for Trump 2.0, the world watches, aware that the region’s trajectory could redefine the global power balance.