The recent summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov signals a recalibration of global power dynamics. The absence of European and Ukrainian representatives at the table underscores the outsized influence of major players in shaping geopolitical realities.

For Iran and its regional allies, the question looms: How will this summit reshape the Middle East? From the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon to Iraq’s fragile stability, Tehran’s strategic calculations are in flux.

Since the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, the United States and its allies have sought to contain further escalation while simultaneously tightening the screws on resistance factions. Yet, rather than being weakened, Iran’s allies across the region have not only endured but, in some cases, expanded their influence.

A potential U.S.-Russia deal over Ukraine could carry significant consequences. Washington may attempt to leverage Moscow into curtailing its strategic cooperation with Tehran, but history suggests such efforts would be futile. Russia, entangled in its own web of sanctions and diplomatic isolation, views Iran as an indispensable partner—militarily, politically, and economically. Meanwhile, Israel, struggling to meet its objectives in Gaza and Lebanon, is likely to lobby for increased Western military backing, further fueling regional tensions.

Iran and its regional proxies remain poised to counteract any shifts in the power equation. Tehran has consistently demonstrated its willingness to escalate militarily when necessary, ensuring its position is neither diminished nor disregarded.

Iraq, with its strategic depth and political fluidity, stands at the heart of the region’s evolving landscape. The Riyadh summit’s outcomes will likely accelerate Washington’s ongoing efforts to erode Iran’s foothold in Baghdad. Israeli intelligence operations, particularly through Unit 8200, have only compounded the challenge for Tehran, as have pro-Western factions maneuvering to reshape Iraq’s internal balance.

If a U.S.-Russia understanding emerges, Washington may intensify its pressure campaign on Iraq, urging Baghdad to align more closely with its strategic objectives. Iran, acutely aware of this possibility, is unlikely to yield. To maintain its leverage, Tehran is expected to reinforce ties with its Iraqi allies, disrupt Israeli intelligence activities, and deepen economic and security cooperation with Baghdad.

At its core, Iran’s strategy remains clear: prevent Iraq from becoming a staging ground for adversarial forces while ensuring its long-term influence in the country’s political and security spheres.

The Riyadh summit reinforces a critical reality—despite sustained Western efforts to isolate Iran, Tehran has, in many ways, expanded its regional clout. Far from retreating under pressure, Iran has solidified its influence across multiple theaters, leveraging regional instability to fortify its alliances.

This growing resilience is bolstered by Iran’s deepening ties with Russia and China. As both nations face their own Western-imposed sanctions, their interests increasingly align with Tehran’s. This convergence opens the door for expanded cooperation in military, economic, and energy sectors—further embedding Iran within the emerging multipolar order.

However, the threats to Iran’s stability remain significant. Israeli and Western intelligence operations continue to target Iran’s regional influence, employing local proxies to destabilize its allies. Western-aligned media outlets work to shape narratives that undermine Tehran’s domestic legitimacy, posing another layer of strategic concern.

To navigate the turbulence ahead, Iran must prioritize four key pillars of strategy. First, enhancing military and cybersecurity capabilities to preempt intelligence threats. Second, deepening ties with Russia and China while leveraging regional diplomacy to counter hostile coalitions. Third, actively neutralizing destabilization campaigns aimed at weakening its influence. Finally, expanding economic and security partnerships with regional allies to cement its position.

As the global order continues to fragment, the Riyadh summit serves as a reminder of Iran’s enduring role in shaping the region’s trajectory. Despite mounting pressure from the West, Tehran’s strategic adaptability—bolstered by alliances with Moscow and Beijing—positions it as a key player in the shifting balance of power. By reinforcing its defense posture, engaging in calculated diplomacy, and preempting intelligence threats, Iran stands poised to navigate the complexities of an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape.