On July 15, former President Donald Trump announced his much-anticipated pick for running mate in a way only the former reality television star could. In front of thousands of devoted politicos at the RNC Convention in Milwaukee, out trotted Ohio Senator and Hillbilly Elegy author J.D. Vance to near-hysterical fanfare. It felt like a coronation, and it practically was. A former U.S. Marine with a compelling rags-to-riches story and an Ivy League education, there was every reason to believe Vance represented the future of the party. There’s just one problem; ever since, the heir-designate has been clumsy, uncharismatic, and excessively gaffe-prone. And Republicans, understandably, are starting to get worried.

It took only days for the first controversy, a clip from a 2021 Fox News interview in which Vance made disparaging remarks about women without biological children, to rear its ugly head. “We are effectively run in this country…by a bunch of childless cat ladies who are miserable at their own lives and the choices that they’ve made,” Vance told Tucker Carlson. “It’s just a basic fact. You look at Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, AOC (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez), the entire future of the Democrats is controlled by people without children.”

The comments took Republicans by surprise, many of whom were already concerned by the fact that Vance never received proper vetting. “Of the people that were mentioned as finalists, he had the most risk, because he had never been vetted nationally,” Bill McCoshen, a GOP strategist, told Politico. “The road got a lot harder. He was the only pick that wasn’t the safe pick. And I think everyone has now realized that,” an anonymous House Republican told Axios. “If you had a time machine, if you go back two weeks, would [Trump] have picked J.D. Vance again? I doubt it,” said Ben Shapiro, a well-known far-right commentator and podcast host.

Of course, however, that was only the beginning of what is now a slew of well-documented missteps and odd comments. From a random outburst on the campaign trail defending diet Mountain Dew against the woke mob to a viral online meme accusing Vance of having sex with a couch, at nearly every step, the Ohio Senator has garnered unwanted attention for the Trump campaign.

It’s not just Vance’s poor performance that has caused several Republicans to second-guess his addition to the ticket. In many respects, the political calculus behind his selection never made sense to begin with. Vance doesn’t bring electoral strength to the ticket; he represents the recently turned deep-red state of Ohio. Even in his 2022 Senate election, Vance underperformed compared to his fellow Republicans on the ballot. Demographically, Trump has also always performed well with white men, another sector of the electorate that Vance represents. In addition, Vance has only officially held public office for a year, making him unlikely to rectify the tense relationship Trump had with Capitol Hill in his first term.

Worst of all, voters and analysts alike have found him to be off-putting, or as Minnesota Governor Tim Walz put it, “weird.” It’s an attack that the Harris campaign is sticking with, mostly because polls show that people agree. With a national approval rating of only 34%, it’s arguable that Vance might prove to be one of the most unpopular VP selections in recent memory. All things considered, perhaps it’s time to ask how damaging J.D. Vance’s presence on the ticket could be.

Vice-presidential nominees rarely play a decisive role in deciding an election. And despite his terrible start, it’s unlikely that Vance alone could cost Trump his chance to return to the White House. The Republican nominee has a well-established national presence and commands a loyal political following. And by all accounts, the former president is well aware of that fact. “Historically, the choice of a vice president makes no difference,” Trump said in a Fox News interview. “You’re voting for the president. You can have a vice president who’s outstanding in every way, and I think J.D. [Vance] is. I think that all of them would have been. But you’re not voting that way. You’re voting for the president. You’re voting for me.”

Nevertheless, in a close election, anything is possible. And even without a tight race, recent political history has shown that choosing the wrong partner can still have an impact. Sen. John McCain’s decision to run with Sarah Palin in 2008 comes to mind. Additionally, the recent attempt on Donald Trump’s life might cause people to take the idea of a J.D. Vance administration more seriously. Whether or not such a scenario would be enough to dispel voters is a question that can only be answered in November.