Africa’s Sahel region is where political instability, terrorism, and foreign meddling collide. Recent military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—once considered essential U.S. counterterrorism partners—have dramatically altered the landscape. This upheaval poses an urgent question for the United States: how should it respond to a region where democratic governance is collapsing and rival powers like Russia are stepping in?

The U.S.’s military-first strategy has not delivered the long-term stability the region desperately needs. More military aid will not resolve the governance crises at the core of the Sahel’s challenges. Instead, Washington must pivot its focus to addressing the root causes of instability—poor governance, widespread poverty, and a lack of economic opportunities.

For years, the U.S. has heavily relied on military assistance in the Sahel, channeling $1.2 billion into counterterrorism between 2018 and 2022. In Niger, the U.S. operated a crucial drone base aimed at combatting extremist groups. However, after the July 2023 coup, the new Nigerien government forced the U.S. to withdraw its forces and shut down the base.

Recent events highlight the limits of military aid, which, while necessary, has failed to address the deeper socio-political issues driving instability. Many in the Sahel increasingly view Western involvement as superficial—focused more on military dominance than on fostering better governance and economic prosperity. Disillusionment with foreign intervention is growing.

As the U.S. and France grapple with waning influence, Russia has quickly filled the gap. Through the Wagner Group—a shadowy paramilitary force with Kremlin ties—Russia has made significant inroads, particularly in Mali and Burkina Faso. Unlike the West, which often conditions military aid on democratic governance and human rights, Russia offers a simpler deal: military support without strings attached.

However, this model offers no long-term solution. Wagner’s presence has been linked to rising civilian casualties and human rights abuses. Moscow’s mercenary-driven strategy may temporarily bolster these regimes, but it entrenches the region’s conflicts without addressing the fundamental issues of governance and development.

While global powers compete for influence, extremist groups are the real beneficiaries. Political instability following the coups has created fertile ground for organizations like al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) to expand their reach. According to the Global Terrorism Index, the Sahel is now the world’s deadliest region for terrorism, with a 50% surge in attacks in 2023 alone.

The humanitarian consequences are dire. Over 40 million people in the Sahel face food insecurity, a crisis exacerbated by political instability and climate change. As state institutions falter, extremist groups step in, offering resources, protection, and a sense of purpose to young people with few economic opportunities.

The U.S. must shift its focus from a military-first approach toward addressing the underlying drivers of instability in the Sahel.

First, Washington should strengthen its engagement with regional organizations like ECOWAS and the African Union. Both are key to restoring constitutional order in the region. By working more closely with these institutions, the U.S. can help create political solutions rooted in local contexts rather than imposing unsustainable external military frameworks.

Second, Washington must counter Russia’s influence and offer an alternative to the Wagner Group. The U.S. can differentiate itself by emphasizing governance reforms, economic development, and human security. A stronger focus on humanitarian aid and climate resilience programs would help stabilize communities and reduce the appeal of extremism.

Finally, the U.S. should prioritize diplomacy, working with local governments to promote accountability and the rule of law. By helping Sahelian nations build effective, transparent institutions, Washington can help restore the credibility of governance, which will weaken the appeal of extremist groups and foreign mercenaries alike.

The Sahel region is at a tipping point, and so is U.S. policy. The recent military coups exposed the fragility of democratic institutions, while Russia’s growing influence threatens to further destabilize the region. The U.S. must adopt a policy that resonates with local populations and addresses governance, poverty, and economic opportunity.

The U.S. has a chance to make a meaningful difference, but only if it acts decisively and with a long-term vision for the region’s stability and prosperity.