U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to the Middle East this week, his ninth since the conflict ignited on October 7th, appears to have brought little progress toward a ceasefire. That date marked the beginning of a violent episode when Hamas militants crossed into Israel, leading to the deaths of 1,200 people and the kidnapping of 250 more. In a press conference held in Tel Aviv on Monday, Blinken outlined his objectives, which remain frustratingly elusive.

Blinken made it clear that he had two primary goals during this visit. The first reaffirmed the United States’ unshakable commitment to Israel’s security. He stated, “The first is to reaffirm the commitment of the United States to Israel’s security, and that’s a commitment that we’ve put into practice virtually every day since October 7th, including when Israel was attacked directly by Iran back in April.” He emphasized that the U.S. has recently deployed additional military assets to the region explicitly to deter any further aggression from Iran.

The second goal Blinken articulated was to advance the United States’ ongoing efforts to finalize a ceasefire agreement in Gaza and secure the release of hostages. He characterized this as “the single best way, obviously, to get hostages home, to get an enduring ceasefire that also reflects Israel’s security interests, to relieve the terrible daily suffering of Gazans – men, women, and children desperate for food to eat, for shelter, and for staying out of harm’s way.” According to Blinken, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed Israel’s acceptance of the proposed agreement. The ball is now in Hamas’s court to agree, he said.

Blinken also called on Egypt and Qatar to solidify their roles in this agreement, urging them to “come together and complete the process of reaching clear understandings about how they’ll implement the commitments that they’ve made under this agreement.” He stressed the urgency of the situation, emphasizing, “There is, I think, a real sense of urgency here, across the region, on the need to get this over the finish line and to do it as soon as possible. The United States is deeply committed to getting this job done, to getting it done now.”

While in Doha on Tuesday, Blinken reiterated his message, emphasizing the critical need to finalize the ceasefire and the hostage agreement. He hoped these efforts would not only end the conflict but also pave the way for “a more enduring peace and security for everyone throughout the Middle East.”

However, Blinken’s vision confronts a stark reality. Hamas, designated as a terrorist organization by both the U.S. and the European Union, seeks to exert control over Gaza and the West Bank. The group’s objectives are fundamentally at odds with the peace and security Blinken aims to foster. The October 7th attack by Hamas was intended to exert enormous pressure on Israel, with the expectation that international outcry would lead to a ceasefire and that Iran, through its proxies, would intensify pressure on Israel.

Yet, Hamas’s strategy has not unfolded as intended. Israel has remained resolute, clearly stating its intent to dismantle Hamas and recover its hostages despite the mounting international pressure to halt its military operations. Moreover, Iran’s other regional proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, have not engaged in the full-scale military actions that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar might have hoped for.

It’s likely that Sinwar miscalculated, assuming that these factors would allow Hamas to emerge stronger from this conflict. Instead, Israel has succeeded in assassinating key Hamas leaders, a turn of events Sinwar probably did not anticipate. Among those killed was Mohammed Deif, the head of Hamas’s military wing and one of the masterminds behind the October 7th attacks. He was targeted in an Israeli airstrike in July. Other significant figures eliminated by Israel include Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s top political leader, who was killed in a strike in Tehran on July 31st, as well as Saleh al-Arouri, who was killed in Beirut, and Marwan Issa, a deputy military chief, who was targeted in Gaza earlier this year.

This leaves Sinwar and a few other top leaders—like Khaled Mashaal, Khalil al-Hayya, and Musa Abu Marzouk—as some of the last standing, each with an Israeli bounty on their heads. Israel has made it clear that these men are “dead men walking,” echoing the government’s determination since the outset of this conflict.

While the Biden administration might wish to broker a ceasefire and secure the hostages’ release, Hamas’s continued rejection of Israel’s terms makes this outcome seem increasingly improbable. Israel, for its part, appears poised to continue its campaign to dismantle Hamas, destroy its terror infrastructure, and eliminate Sinwar to ensure the return of its hostages.

The future remains uncertain. There is no definitive plan for what comes after the conflict. Still, it seems increasingly likely that Israel will maintain a significant presence in Gaza, particularly along the Philadelphi Corridor that separates Gaza from Egypt, until a credible and trustworthy leadership emerges.

Throughout the region, there is growing interest in the idea of a more moderate leadership taking control of Gaza, implementing emergency measures to aid Palestinian civilians, and possibly transforming Gaza into the “Singapore paradise” that was once envisioned. With Hamas out of the picture, this long-held hope might finally have a chance to become a reality.