Photo illustration by John Lyman

World News

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The Only Question that Matters for Taiwan

Taiwan is one of the world’s most well-functioning democracies, a remarkable feat given its transition from authoritarian rule just three decades ago. Yet, as Beijing’s threats of military action grow increasingly ominous, questions surrounding Taiwan’s future are more pressing than ever.

Can China succeed in an invasion? Would the U.S. and its allies intervene? What would the fallout mean for the global economy? While these are undoubtedly critical issues, one question towers above the rest: Will the Taiwanese people fight to protect their democracy?

This year, Taiwan joined the ranks of nations allowing its citizens—part of a record 3.7 billion people globally—to participate in a democratic election. Just across the Taiwan Strait, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) marked 75 years of governance without voting rights, participatory democracy, or fundamental civil liberties. This sharp contrast vividly reminds Taiwan of what it stands to lose should Beijing enforce its goal of unification.

Anything worth having is worth protecting. Former President Chen Shui-bian aptly framed what is at stake: “If we really love and cherish Taiwan, we should hold our hands in unity to protect our country and our democratic values with the most humble and tolerant hearts.”

But humility alone cannot counter the growing military threat posed by Beijing. As the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) continues its rapid expansion and casts a larger shadow over the Taiwan Strait, it becomes increasingly clear that military force may determine Taiwan’s destiny.

Taiwan’s democracy was not handed down but earned through decades of struggle. Under the Republic of China’s Nationalist government, countless lives were lost defending the mainland against Imperial Japan and Communist forces before a final defeat led to their retreat to Taiwan. From 1949 to 1987, the Nationalist regime enforced martial law—known as the “White Terror”—to suppress dissent and delay democratic reforms. Events like the 228 and Kaohsiung Incidents, with a combined death toll of approximately 20,000, underscore the immense human cost of achieving Taiwan’s hard-won freedoms. Having sacrificed so much for democracy, the question looms whether Taiwanese citizens would once again risk everything to preserve it.

A majority of Taiwanese reject the prospect of political subjugation under Chinese President Xi Jinping’s heavy hand, favoring the current status quo of de facto independence. However, Beijing’s patience with the status quo is finite. Hong Kong’s grim experience—where promises of autonomy were dismantled—serves as a stark warning. Unlike Hong Kong, however, Taiwan has a robust military, a geographically advantageous position, and 24 million people who can be mobilized to resist Beijing’s ambitions.

Every passing day brings new signs of China’s intent. Military vessels and aircraft encircle Taiwan with increasing frequency, while Xi Jinping has ordered the PLA to develop the capabilities necessary to address the “Taiwan issue” by 2027. This military buildup is not mere saber-rattling but a calculated preparation for action. The question of whether Taiwan’s democracy endures may hinge on whether its people value their democratic system enough to defend it.

Taiwan’s democratic governance fosters prosperity and dynamism, granting every citizen a voice in their nation’s future and inspiring admiration worldwide. Under Beijing’s authoritarian rule, Taiwan would become a province stripped of the freedoms and autonomy that define its identity. The choice is clear: democracy or dictatorship, freedom or submission.

Ultimately, the survival of Taiwan’s democracy is a decision only its people can make. Neither Beijing nor Washington can determine Taiwan’s fate. If faced with an invasion, will Taiwanese citizens fight to defend their democracy? If invaders demanded that I surrender my rights, I would fight fiercely to protect them. For Taiwan, the time to solidify its resolve—politically, socially, and militarily—is now.

The author’s views and interpretations of fact are his own and not reflective of those held in whole or in part by the United States government.