Avi Melamed, an expert on Middle Eastern affairs, discusses the strategic implications of recent covert operations against Hezbollah and the potential for conflict escalation between Israel and Iran’s proxies.

Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official and senior advisor on Arab affairs, is the founder of the Inside the Middle East Institute, an organization dedicated to providing unbiased insights into the region’s complexities. As an author, intelligence analyst, educator, and speaker, his expertise spans current affairs in the Arab and Muslim world and their implications for the Middle East and Israel’s geopolitical landscape.

In an exclusive interview, Melamed delved into the nuances of recent covert operations targeting Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon and the broader ramifications for the ongoing, multi-dimensional conflict.

The interview below has been edited for clarity.

Recent explosions in electronic devices used by Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon are being hailed as one of the most sophisticated covert operations in recent memory. What, in your opinion, was the objective behind such a move?

In my view, it was done to significantly damage Hezbollah’s capabilities and to put additional pressure on Hezbollah to abandon its attacks on northern Israel.

Some analysts have labeled these attacks as “reckless.” Do you share that assessment?

I won’t term these attacks as “reckless” as the imposed war on Israel which started on October 7 is only getting intensified. In this scenario, Israel has to take defensive measures. And respond effectively.

How do you foresee Hezbollah, Iran, and their proxies responding to these developments?

I think their response will be a very calculated one and they won’t carry out unprecedented attacks. Any major response can jeopardize the whole situation and that won’t be in the interest of Iran and its proxies. In the past, we have also seen their reactions have been limited.

Diplomats and world leaders have warned that these attacks could spark a full-scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. What is your take on this potential escalation?

It has the potential of widening the conflict, but then we have to consider the cost of engagement in full-fledged conflict for Iran and its proxies. Since the October 7 attacks, Iran and its allies have been fighting a pre-calculated war with Israel, and it is not in their interest to enter into an all-out war with Israel. Moreover, the heavy military presence of the United States in the region is also acting as a deterrent for Iran.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres condemned the attacks, suggesting they might be a prelude to a major Israeli offensive in Lebanon. Do you see any signs of an impending large-scale operation?

In my opinion, these attacks were a warning sign for Hezbollah. Now the ball is in the court of Hezbollah and Iran. Their action will only determine whether a major military operation is launched on the Israel-Lebanon border or not. Thousands of residents in northern Israel have been evacuated because of Hezbollah’s daily attacks if this issue is not solved diplomatically. I think in that case Israel may consider other options including large military operations.

There’s speculation that these attacks were intended to derail the U.S.-led proposal for a Gaza ceasefire. What’s your perspective on this?

Hamas miscalculated the Israeli response and didn’t expect such a massive retaliation from Israel after the October 7 attacks. Now Hamas is facing severe criticism from Gazans for making such a blunder and causing the destruction of Gaza. Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar is under immense pressure to show some achievements to his people. And under this pressure, Hamas is making unreasonable demands in any ceasefire negotiations.

What’s your view on the latest Israeli incursions into the West Bank? Could it become a theater for major military operations similar to Gaza?

I don’t think the West Bank will see any major military operations like Gaza. In the West Bank, some kinetic operations are done to specifically target local militias. Moreover, it’s not in the interest of Israel nor the Palestinian Authority to widen the conflict in the West Bank. I think only pinpoint operations will be carried out in the West Bank.

There are growing calls within Israel for the appointment of a new defense minister. Could such a change lead to a shift in Israel’s military strategy?

Talks about the new Defence Minister have evaporated a little bit now. A sizable section of society thinks changing the leadership in the Defence Ministry at this crucial time will be counterproductive. But even if there is a change, I don’t think it will lead to a change in overall strategy.

Idan C., who holds dual degrees in Political Science from Tel Aviv University, contributed valuable insights in framing the questions for this interview.