Fears are increasingly growing that tensions in the Middle East could spiral out of control.

On July 30, Israel carried out an airstrike in Beirut, Lebanon, killing Fuad Shukr, a senior member of Hezbollah. This act was a retaliation for a cross-border rocket attack that had claimed 12 lives in the occupied Golan Heights. While the hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel persist, they have primarily remained confined to the frontier region. Historically, both parties have shown restraint, indicating an aversion to a broader confrontation despite fears of a potential war.

The situation intensified on July 31, when Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, was killed in an attack in Tehran during the inauguration ceremony of Iran’s newly elected president. Predictably, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Hamas accused Israel of orchestrating the attack. Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei declared avenging Haniyeh’s killing a national duty, citing the location of the attack in the Iranian capital as a significant factor. He warned that Israel had paved the way for severe retaliation.

Khamenei reiterated on August 1 that Iran must seek revenge for Haniyeh’s blood, emphasizing the attack’s occurrence on Iranian soil. Reports from U.S. media suggested that Khamenei had ordered a direct assault on Israel in response.

In contrast, the international community has called for de-escalation and a focus on achieving a ceasefire in Gaza. On August 1, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described the attacks in Tehran and Beirut as a “dangerous escalation,” urging all efforts to be directed towards a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages taken by Hamas during their October 7 attack. The United Nations Security Council convened an emergency meeting at Iran’s request to address the strike. Qatar’s Prime Minister Abdulrahman Al-Thani expressed doubts about the mediation process’s success, questioning its viability when one party assassinates the negotiator from the other side.

The killing of the Hamas chief was widely condemned by Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Qatar, Yemen, and Tunisia, among others. Hezbollah also declared that Haniyeh’s death would bolster the resolve of resistance fighters, while Iran vowed a harsh and painful response to Israel.

The Gaza conflict, which began on October 7, 2023, with Hamas’s attack on Israel, has resulted in significant casualties, with 1,197 people killed, mostly civilians, and 251 hostages taken, 111 of whom remain captive in Gaza, including 39 who are deceased. By August 1, the war’s death toll had reached 39,480, with 91,128 wounded. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to annihilate Hamas in retaliation for the October 7 attack. The continuous Israeli military operations have repeatedly displaced about 1.9 million people in the Gaza Strip, virtually decimating the enclave over the ten-month war.

The situation in Gaza remains critical, with diminishing hopes for a Hamas-Israel ceasefire. The recent incidents could trigger a major escalation in the Middle East, posing a significant setback to Gaza ceasefire talks. Israel’s goal to destroy Hamas appears unachievable, and the assassination of Hezbollah leaders is likely to provoke a popular backlash, leading to increased support for these movements among Arab and Muslim populations.

The United States is the only nation capable of pressuring Israel into agreeing to a ceasefire. However, the Biden administration has been preoccupied with domestic political issues and has not exerted the necessary pressure on Netanyahu to cease hostilities in Gaza. Consequently, the efforts by the Biden administration, Qatar, and Egypt might be in vain. On July 31, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized the necessity of a Gaza ceasefire following the killing of the Hamas chief, urging all parties to halt escalatory actions.

These statements, however, may be insufficient and belated. The U.S.’s declining influence in the Middle East, primarily due to its pro-Israel stance, contrasts with the broad international support for the Palestinian cause, notably from China and Russia.

On August 1, Wall Street reported the Biden administration’s attempts to salvage Gaza ceasefire prospects following Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran. The assassination has potentially derailed the talks, leaving officials concerned about the escalating conflict on multiple fronts.

Global media is increasingly alarmed by the developments in the Middle East. In an article titled “Fears of Wider Mideast Conflict Deepen, With U.S. Seen as ‘Not in Control,’” published by the New York Times on August 1, Mark Landler observed that the targeted killings of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders have heightened fears of a region-wide conflict.

“The targeted killings of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders in Beirut and Tehran have deepened fears of a regionwide conflict — one that the United States, caught up in its political drama at home, may have little capacity to avert or even contain….For President Biden, who expended time and prestige trying to broker a deal between Israel and Hamas to release hostages in Gaza, the back-to-back assassinations of the Hezbollah commander, Fuad Shukr, and the Hamas political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, could signal the futility of his diplomatic efforts, at least for now. Moreover, the United States could find itself drawn into a direct conflict with Iran, something both countries have taken pains to avoid through months of tensions over the war in Gaza,” Mark Landler writes.

This situation challenges President Biden’s diplomatic efforts and raises the risk of the U.S. being drawn into a direct conflict with Iran. Given Iran’s domestic political pressures, a retaliatory strike against Israel is likely, although the scale and timing remain uncertain.

While a full-blown regional war seems improbable due to Iran’s recognition of Israel’s superior military power, Iran will likely leverage its extensive alliance network, particularly Hezbollah, to respond. This could enable rivals like Russia and China to expand their influence at the U.S.’s expense. The Biden administration’s quest for a ceasefire and a two-state solution is undermined by Israel’s actions, and domestic political considerations in an election year further diminish the likelihood of a forceful U.S. intervention to halt Israeli aggression.

The increased threat of regional escalation will further destabilize the Middle East, with Palestinians bearing the brunt of the suffering. The prospect of a resolution remains bleak, with international diplomacy facing significant challenges amidst the ongoing conflict.