Israel and Iran’s tit-for-tat strikes on one another risks leading to a wider war.

On October 26, Israel struck military targets within Iran, retaliating against an Iranian ballistic missile assault earlier in the month. The operation reportedly avoided Iran’s oil and nuclear sites, though Tehran downplayed the damage, claiming it was minimal and led to the deaths of four soldiers. Some analysts believe the Israeli attack was orchestrated, and targets were specifically chosen before the strikes occurred.

This was a significant shift, marking Israel’s first public acknowledgment of direct military action inside Iran. The Biden administration had previously cautioned Israel against targeting sensitive nuclear facilities. Following the attack, Israeli military officials warned Iran against escalating the situation. However, Iran refrained from an immediate response, instead emphasizing the importance of ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon. This stance may temporarily ease fears of an all-out regional conflict between these two powerful Middle Eastern adversaries.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s remarks on October 27 emphasized caution, advising against either inflating or dismissing the impact of the Israeli strikes, subtly hinting at a measured Iranian response. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that the strikes “severely harmed” Iran, achieving Israel’s strategic goals. Tehran now faces a pivotal choice: retaliate and risk igniting a broader crisis, or hold back, risk perceptions of weakness domestically and among regional allies.

For years, Israel and Iran have waged a shadow conflict, each side undermining the other’s interests and regional allies, often without claiming responsibility. But the conflict’s covert nature began to dissolve as Israel’s war with Hamas, Iran’s ally in Gaza, drew these nations closer to confrontation.

Following Hamas’s large-scale assault on Israel last year, Israel launched a devastating campaign in Gaza. Iran’s other regional proxies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, soon joined the fray in solidarity with the Palestinians, leading Israel to intensify its strikes on Iranian assets throughout the Middle East. Both sides have intermittently escalated their military actions, each response triggering fresh clashes as regional tensions simmered.

Iran, for its part, has accused Israel of stoking instability across the Middle East and claims a right to defend itself from foreign aggression. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran’s elite military branch, downplayed the recent attacks, signaling restraint. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was briefed on the situation by Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and a spokesperson for the National Security Council confirmed that Israel had informed the U.S. ahead of the strikes.

President Joe Biden expressed hope that Israel’s latest strike on Iran could signal the end of months of hostilities. His administration has ramped up efforts to negotiate ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon. “Hope this is the end,” Biden said, noting that Israel targeted “only military sites.” Still, the ongoing violence has overshadowed these diplomatic efforts, as both Iran and Israel have shown limited commitment to de-escalation.

Calls for restraint are mounting worldwide, with United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres and leaders from the European Union, Russia, Arab Gulf nations, and the G7 urging both sides to avoid further military action. But for months, such demands have mainly gone unheeded, as hawkish voices within both Israel and Iran argue for a tougher stance, raising the potential for catastrophic miscalculations.

Some Israeli leaders frame this moment as a rare opportunity to weaken Iran, whose allies are embroiled in conflict and defenses weakened by relentless strikes. Netanyahu, however, has treaded cautiously, mindful of Washington’s persistent warnings. Israel relies heavily on U.S. missile defenses and weaponry, particularly in its conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon.

The current cycle of aggression escalated last April when Israel targeted an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus, provoking Iran’s first direct drone and missile attacks on Israeli soil. This exchange, followed by targeted assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July and Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut in September, precipitated Iran’s October response: a barrage of 200 ballistic missiles aimed at Israel.

The two adversaries attempt to avoid full-scale war, carefully calibrating their responses. Yet the stakes are high, and each escalation risks sparking a crisis that neither side may be able to control.

The Israeli assault raises fears of a broader regional war that could draw in the United States against Iran and its powerful proxies, including Hamas and Hezbollah. With its latest strike, Israel has broken from its historical tendency toward covert operations, openly acknowledging its role and heeding U.S. calls for a more transparent approach. President Biden has doubled down on diplomatic efforts for a Gaza ceasefire, but the recent attacks underscore how quickly such efforts can unravel.

Last year’s Hamas-led attack sparked an intensified Israeli campaign against Iran-backed proxies, including Hezbollah and the Houthis, on which Iran depends for influence. The toll on Iran’s alliances is clear, and Israel’s ongoing offensive further strains Tehran’s strategic posture. Iran also faces substantial domestic challenges, including economic woes, internal dissent, and the looming succession of Supreme Leader Khamenei—all of which complicate Tehran’s calculus. Iran’s restraint may reflect its desire to avoid an open war while maintaining a veneer of strength.

Both Israel and Iran currently favor a controlled conflict, opting for limited actions that avoid a descent into open war. Yet hawkish factions in both countries, including Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, advocate for more robust responses. The risks of miscalculation remain high, making this a precarious moment for the region.

Iran appears unlikely to initiate a full-scale war, as such a conflict would devastate the Middle East and disrupt global energy markets—a scenario neither Israel nor the U.S. desires. Still, the risk of an inadvertent escalation looms, especially as the U.S. faces domestic distractions in the run-up to its presidential election in less than four days. The Biden administration’s efforts to curb Israeli aggression may falter in the face of domestic politics, leaving room for possible missteps or reckless actions from either side that could tip the region into war.

Israel’s ongoing offensive in Gaza highlights the strain of its multi-front campaign. On October 27, air and ground strikes in northern Gaza reportedly killed 22 people, mostly civilians, according to Palestinian sources, while Israeli officials claimed they targeted militant positions. Humanitarian groups describe the situation as a catastrophe, with Oxfam accusing Israel of using starvation as a weapon against the Palestinians, who face severe food shortages as aid access remains blocked.

The United Nations reports that Gaza is nearing a humanitarian breaking point, with nine out of ten children malnourished and nearly 50,000 children under five needing urgent nutritional support by year-end. As the Israeli bombardment intensifies, northern Gaza is being forced to evacuate, with thousands fleeing amid heavy airstrikes and ground incursions. Palestinian health officials say the siege is crippling medical services and obstructing aid access.

Israel’s extensive offensive in northern Gaza, launched on October 6, has already caused massive displacement. The Red Cross recently condemned Israel’s restrictions on supplies and evacuation orders, warning that civilians face “horrific conditions.”

The initial trigger for the current cycle of conflict—the October 7 Hamas attack that killed over 1,200 Israeli civilians—has set off a wave of violence that shows little sign of abating. Israel’s response, which has left more than 43,000 Palestinians dead, has devastated Gaza’s infrastructure and displaced most of the population.

Meanwhile, Israel’s campaign in Lebanon is escalating. After months of low-level confrontations with Hezbollah, Israeli forces launched a ground invasion in October. Recent Israeli strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs reflect the expanding conflict with Hezbollah, a battle that saw several Israeli soldiers killed and wounded on October 27 in skirmishes with Hezbollah fighters.

The possibility of a two-state solution seems increasingly remote despite Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s efforts for a ceasefire and prisoner exchange in Gaza. The Biden administration’s waning influence leaves little hope for meaningful diplomatic progress. In the absence of a viable peace process, the people of Gaza, Lebanon, and Israel may face a prolonged and bloody struggle.