The Modi government’s failure to fulfill promises to farmers has led to renewed protests, signaling a growing discontent among a crucial voting bloc.

The recent criticisms from prominent farmer leader Sarwan Singh Pandher, highlighting the government’s disregard for the minimum support price (MSP) in the latest budget, shouldn’t surprise many. Reactions from the farming community have varied, but a common thread of discontent runs through them, centering on the neglect of MSP, the continued imposition of GST on agricultural production, and the stagnant economic support under the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi initiative.

For some time now, the government has failed to meet the needs of the farming community. As far back as November 2021, farmers issued warnings, stating they would return to protest if necessary. These warnings followed their widespread protests against the controversial farm bills, signaling that if the government reneged on its promises, they would again descend on the capital. The Modi government, acutely aware of the electoral influence wielded by farmers, who constitute a significant voting bloc, found itself in a precarious position as elections loomed. This pressure led to the government conceding to most farmers’ demands, at least on paper.

However, these promises remained unfulfilled. Farmers were back on the streets by February, demanding that the government honor its commitments made during the 2021 protests—promises that included doubling farmers’ incomes, waiving their loans, and dropping charges against protestors. The Samyukta Kisan Morcha (SKM) and the Kisan Mazdoor Morcha (KMM), umbrella organizations representing 200 farm unions, spearheaded this new wave of protests.

The unrest began with disgruntled farmers from Haryana and Punjab marching towards Delhi. Authorities, determined to prevent the farmers from reaching the capital, resorted to tear gas and barricades. In response, the farmers issued a stern warning: they would use heavy machinery to break through the barriers. A video circulated showing thousands of farmers at the Shambhu border, readying bulldozers and earthmovers to clear their path. Many were also seen flying kites—a tactic to thwart drones deployed by police to disperse tear gas.

The protests took a tragic turn with the death of Shubh Karan Singh, whose demise was widely reported as the result of a bullet wound to the head. A week later, the Punjab police filed a case, and the government announced compensation and a government job for Singh’s sister. This incident starkly contrasted with earlier claims by the Haryana Police, who dismissed reports of Singh’s death as mere rumors. Similarly, during the 2021 protests, authorities had refused to acknowledge any protest-related deaths yet paradoxically agreed to compensate the families of those who had died—exposing a deep inconsistency in the government’s stance.

The farmers, meanwhile, were accused of attacking the police with chili powder, sticks, and maces. The protests, which ended in violence and injury, notably strained relations between farmers and law enforcement. However, the farmers’ influence persisted through the elections, as many voted for the INDIA Bloc. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which had expected to secure over 400 seats, was reduced to a mere 293. Election surveys revealed a significant shift in voting patterns among farmers, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) losing votes to the INDIA Bloc.

Despite the NDA securing 45% of the farmer vote in the last election, the focus now shifts to the areas of significant loss. In Maharashtra, where a ban on onion exports alienated farmers, the NDA saw a marked decrease in support. In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP’s seat count dropped to 33 from 62 in 2019. In Haryana, the party lost half its seats to Congress, and in Rajasthan, the BJP, which had swept the state last time, won just 56% of the seats. The NDA’s share of the rural vote dipped by 2.2%, underscoring the growing disillusionment among farmers. The resounding victory of Amraram from the Communist Party of India over BJP’s Sumedhanand Saraswati exemplifies the widespread anger within the farming community.

As the Modi government grapples with eroding support among farmers and the broader rural and middle-class population—evidenced by the NDA’s losses in Maharashtra—pressure mounts. The opposition in parliament is increasingly vocal, demanding justice for farmers and a guaranteed MSP. Modi, aware of the critical role farmers play in his economic and political strategies, faces a daunting challenge. His recent announcement of $2.3 million in aid for nearly 93 million farmers is an attempt to regain favor. Yet the pressing question remains: Will this be enough? Can the government finally ensure the guaranteed MSP on 23 crops that farmers have long demanded?