The U.S. strategically expands its influence in the Eastern Mediterranean and Gulf regions, leveraging energy partnerships to counterbalance regional conflicts and rising Chinese influence.

The Eastern Mediterranean basin—spanning Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, Israel, the Palestinian territories, Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, and Turkey—has emerged since the late 2000s as a hotbed of energy competition, ideological divides, historical conflicts, and rising regional ambitions.

Here, the interests of major powers intersect, weaving the United States, the European Union, Russia, and China into a geopolitical tapestry shaped by the region’s rich resources and complex rivalries. The Eastern Mediterranean and the Gulf are increasingly merging into a singular geopolitical theater, with the U.S. working actively to counter China’s influence. The concurrent wars in Ukraine and Gaza bring further urgency, shaping global and regional dynamics in unforeseen ways.

Since 2009, major gas discoveries have sparked speculation about significant geopolitical shifts. Once an importer, Israel is now a gas exporter, Cyprus is becoming an energy player, and a trilateral alliance among Greece, Israel, and Cyprus has been solidified. The creation of the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF) in 2019—a coalition of seven countries with the EU, the U.S., and the UAE as observers—underscored these changes. Yet, Turkey, despite its regional influence and strategic location, remains pointedly excluded, adding to simmering tensions.

The Tamar (2009) and Leviathan (2010) gas fields off Israel’s shores, Aphrodite near Cyprus (2011), Egypt’s Zohr field (2015), and subsequent finds like Cyprus’s Calypso and Israel’s Karish fields offered promise. But the optimism surrounding these discoveries has dimmed amid enduring geopolitical conflicts: unresolved maritime claims, disputes between Lebanon and Israel, the Israel-Palestine conflict, Turkey’s incursions into Greek waters, and the Cyprus dispute continue to impede cooperation. Turkey’s stance on Cyprus’s sovereignty only compounds these complexities.

Plans are underway for a 1,900-kilometer underwater pipeline linking Cypriot and Israeli fields with Greece’s Crete, targeted for completion by 2025. Yet geopolitical, financial, and environmental obstacles loom. Designed to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian gas by supplying 9–12 billion cubic meters annually—approximately 10% of Europe’s needs—the project faces significant hurdles. As Europe seeks alternatives to Russian energy, the Eastern Mediterranean’s strategic importance grows.

Beyond oil and gas, the region plays a critical role in Europe’s security, particularly in migration. Millions from the Middle East and North Africa cross the Mediterranean each year, fueling Europe’s migration crisis and influencing the political landscape, with nationalist and populist parties gaining ground across the continent.

The Gulf’s involvement in the Eastern Mediterranean adds another layer of complexity, primarily through its national oil companies. The UAE has led this charge, bolstering its influence in Libya and Egypt while deepening ties with Cyprus and Greece. The 2020 Abraham Accords with Israel have further cemented the UAE’s role, combining hard and soft power to assert itself in the region. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and Mubadala Petroleum are at the forefront of this effort. Mubadala’s acquisition of a 22% stake in Israel’s Tamar field for $1 billion in 2021 and a 10% stake in Egypt’s Zohr field underscore this strategic push. ADNOC’s recent purchase of a 50% stake in TotalEnergies Egypt exemplifies Abu Dhabi’s broader ambitions.

ADNOC is also collaborating with BP to develop new Mediterranean gas fields. Despite the complications posed by the ongoing Gaza conflict, the UAE’s ambitions remain steadfast. This approach contrasts sharply with Iran and its regional allies, including the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas.

A recent $35 billion agreement between Egypt and the UAE to develop the Ras al-Hikma resort on Egypt’s north coast reflects the Gulf’s expanding economic footprint. The deal injects much-needed foreign currency into Egypt’s faltering economy and promises to enhance Gulf tourism and wealth flows to the Mediterranean coast.

My latest book delves into these developments, arguing that the region’s issues extend beyond oil and gas. The hydrocarbon discoveries are part of a larger geopolitical shift, with the Gulf and Israel actively pursuing their agendas. As the war in Ukraine reshapes energy dynamics, the European Union has made clear its intent to replace Russian gas with resources from Israel, Egypt, and Cyprus. But as integration with the energy-rich Gulf progresses, the Gaza war and Iran-backed militias pose potential setbacks.

Meanwhile, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched in 2013, has fortified China’s influence in the Gulf. Trade between China and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) surged by 140% from 2015 to 2022, with trade with GCC countries reaching $23.7 billion in 2023. Beijing’s growing economic ties with the Gulf directly challenge U.S. influence. Yet, the Gulf nations—Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman—remain tethered mainly to U.S. and British security support, particularly against Iran and its proxies. The U.S. strategy includes linking the Gulf to the Eastern Mediterranean, aiming to contain China’s Indo-Pacific influence alongside key partners like India, Japan, and Australia.

The Eastern Mediterranean concentrates some of the world’s most complex conflicts. From the Israeli-Palestinian dispute to the Syrian crisis, the Cyprus issue, and immigration challenges, the region is fraught with longstanding divisions. In an environment as volatile as this, where military solutions often fall short, Israel, Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia emerge as the principal players.

Turkey’s economic challenges have restricted its ability to project power abroad, as domestic concerns have become a priority. By contrast, the Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, focus on economic diversification while maintaining a wary stance toward Iran.

With robust Western backing, Israel is intent on neutralizing threats from Hamas and Hezbollah, safeguarding key assets like ports and gas fields. For the West, the Eastern Mediterranean’s strategic value demands a dependable ally, and Israel has stepped into that role. Yet, as groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis continue to demonstrate resilience, persistent conflict in the region seems inevitable, perpetuating threats to both U.S. and Israeli interests.