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Taliban fighter in Kabul in 2022. (Callum Darragh)

Afghanistan’s security is just as fragile with the Taliban in charge.

In recent months, global attention has once again focused on Afghanistan, now under the control of the Taliban. The Taliban’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has fervently denied claims from Pakistan’s envoy that Afghanistan could be the source of a future 9/11-style attack. However, the situation on the ground tells a different, far more troubling story. Since the Taliban’s resurgence in 2021, Afghanistan has increasingly become a sanctuary for extremist groups like ISIS-K and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), reigniting fears of a return to the pre-9/11 environment, where terrorist organizations operated with impunity.

The Taliban’s rapid takeover of Afghanistan following the U.S. withdrawal has had profound consequences, not just for the Afghan people but for global security. Under Taliban rule, the country has seen a sharp rise in terrorist activity. The Taliban’s connections with various militant groups, coupled with their apparent inability—or unwillingness—to control these organizations, evoke unsettling memories of the conditions that existed in Afghanistan before the 9/11 attacks.

One of the most alarming developments is the resurgence of the TTP, a group historically linked to al-Qaeda. The TTP has long plagued Pakistan, responsible for some of the most horrific terrorist attacks in the nation’s history. Since the Taliban’s rise to power, TTP activities have not only increased but have also grown more sophisticated. This resurgence raises critical questions about the Taliban’s influence over militant groups operating within Afghanistan’s borders. Despite the Taliban’s promises to the international community to prevent their territory from being used as a staging ground for terrorist attacks, the evidence suggests that Afghanistan is now a more secure haven for these groups than it was before.

Equally concerning is the rise of ISIS-K, the Islamic State’s affiliate in Afghanistan. The group’s brutal attack on Kabul airport in August 2021, which killed over 170 people, including 13 U.S. service members, served as a stark reminder of the threat these extremist organizations pose. This attack not only revealed the Taliban’s inability to secure the capital but also underscored the vulnerability of Afghanistan under their rule. Since then, ISIS-K has continued to carry out attacks across the country, targeting both Taliban fighters and civilians. The Taliban’s failure to curb ISIS-K’s influence further underscores their lack of control and the growing instability within Afghanistan.

The presence of high-profile terrorists in Afghanistan, some of whom have been targeted by international forces or have even clashed with the Taliban, further illustrates the depth of the extremist networks operating within the country. The killing of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in a U.S. drone strike in Kabul in July 2022 shocked the world. His presence in Afghanistan, despite the Taliban’s assurances to the international community, revealed just how deeply entrenched these terrorist organizations have become. This incident laid bare the emptiness of the Taliban’s promises and highlighted the significant danger posed by the return of these groups to Afghan soil.

The parallels between the current situation in Afghanistan and the pre-9/11 era are impossible to ignore. Before 9/11, the Taliban’s control over Afghanistan provided a sanctuary for al-Qaeda, allowing the group to plan and execute the deadliest terrorist attack in modern history. Today, the Taliban’s return to power has created a similar vacuum, one that is rapidly being filled by a variety of extremist groups. These organizations, emboldened by the Taliban’s victory and the perceived weakness of international resolve, are once again using Afghanistan as a base for their operations.

The resurgence of terrorism in Afghanistan has profound implications, not only for the region but for global security as well. The possibility of Afghanistan becoming a launchpad for another large-scale terrorist attack is all too real. The international community, particularly the United States and its allies, cannot afford to ignore the signs of growing extremism in Afghanistan. The consequences of overlooking this threat could be catastrophic, not just for Afghanistan’s neighbors but for the entire world.

The burden now lies with the Taliban to prove they can govern responsibly and prevent their country from being used as a base for terrorism. However, the Taliban’s track record so far is far from reassuring. Their continued ties to extremist groups, along with their failure to establish a stable and effective government, suggest that Afghanistan could very well descend further into chaos, with dire consequences for regional and global security.

The Taliban’s denial of the terrorist threat emanating from Afghanistan is at odds with the reality on the ground. The resurgence of extremist activities, the rise of groups like ISIS-K and TTP, and the Taliban’s inability to maintain security all point to a grim future. The situation in Afghanistan today serves as a stark reminder of the dangers that arise when extremist groups are allowed to operate unchecked. If the international community fails to address these threats, the world could once again face the devastating consequences of terrorism originating from Afghanistan. The need for vigilance, decisive action, and a unified approach to counterterrorism has never been more critical. Without it, the specter of another 9/11-style attack will continue to loom large over the world.

Zahra Batool teaches International Relations. Her areas of interest are Pak-India relations, Pak-Afghan relations, and South Asia.