As the geopolitical landscape in the Indo-Pacific shifts at unprecedented speed, India’s quiet transformation from an arms importer to a defense exporter is emerging as a consequential force in regional security. Once a marginal player in the global arms trade, New Delhi is now one of its fastest-growing suppliers—powered by a mix of domestic industrialization, strategic ambition, and diplomatic finesse. The clearest expression of this evolution lies in India’s growing influence across Asia, where it is now arming countries that find themselves on the front lines of China’s expanding maritime footprint.

At the heart of this defense-led diplomacy is the BrahMos missile—a supersonic cruise missile co-developed with Russia. More than a symbol of Indo-Russian cooperation, the BrahMos has become India’s calling card in a region increasingly anxious about Beijing’s assertiveness. In January 2022, India signed a landmark $375 million deal to supply BrahMos missiles to the Philippines—its largest arms export agreement at the time. That contract, in retrospect, was not a one-off but a precedent-setting moment.

In April, India delivered a second batch of BrahMos missiles to the Philippines, solidifying its reliability as a defense partner and signaling a commitment to long-term regional ties. Now, a third and even more ambitious agreement is on the horizon. India is finalizing a $700 million missile deal with Vietnam—poised to be its largest arms contract to date. Meanwhile, Indonesia is reportedly in advanced talks to procure its own BrahMos systems. For Hanoi and Jakarta—two capitals locked in uneasy maritime contests with China—India’s high-precision weaponry offers not just tactical deterrence, but something arguably more valuable: diplomatic reassurance from a rising regional power.

These transactions are about more than just revenue. They reflect India’s effort to use defense exports as a tool of statecraft—blending arms deals with broader geopolitical aims. India isn’t merely selling weapons; it’s laying the foundation for a regional order in which it plays a central role. In the process, it is crafting a model of defense diplomacy distinct from the traditional offerings of the U.S., Russia, or China—one that delivers capability without coercion, and alignment without dependency.

India’s rise in the arms market has been dramatic. From the world’s 23rd largest arms exporter in 2019, it is projected to break into the top 10 by 2030. Official figures chart a staggering growth: defense exports rose from $250 million in 2015 to over $2 billion by 2024—a 174% increase. This leap is no accident. It stems from deliberate policymaking under the Modi government, which has pushed initiatives like “Make in India,” overhauled defense procurement rules, and mobilized the Ministry of External Affairs to back strategic defense deals abroad.

India’s ambitions are clearly calibrated. It’s not just chasing volume; it’s targeting influence. Southeast Asia is the prime focus. Beyond formal agreements with the Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia, India has signed defense cooperation pacts with Thailand and Malaysia. The appeal is strategic: India’s systems are relatively affordable and come with fewer political conditions. Unlike American or European arms—often encumbered by operational caveats—or Chinese weapons tied to opaque loans and influence peddling, India’s defense offerings promise sovereignty and strength without strings.

Timing, too, is on India’s side. China’s increasingly belligerent posture in the South China Sea—marked by encroachments on Filipino maritime territory, the deployment of coast guard militias, and the artificial expansion of islands—has strained its image as a benign regional power. By contrast, India’s measured but persistent engagement has positioned it as a credible partner for middle-power states seeking security without subjugation. In this new diplomatic terrain, arms exports are India’s most dynamic tool of outreach.

Yet, India’s emergence as a defense supplier is not without challenges. Domestically, the arms industry must scale quickly to meet rising demand without sacrificing quality. Globally, India competes with established players in a cutthroat market and must navigate the risks of diplomatic backlash—particularly from Beijing, which is likely to view India’s defense overtures in its neighborhood as a strategic provocation.

Still, the trajectory is unmistakable. No longer just a buyer in the global arms bazaar, India is asserting itself as a provider. This shift carries long-term consequences. It boosts India’s credibility, broadens its strategic toolkit, and loosens its reliance on traditional suppliers—while aligning with its aspirations for global stature. In the broader Indo-Pacific context, India’s defense diplomacy is shaping up to be a stabilizing force, empowering like-minded nations without deepening dependency or igniting zero-sum rivalries.

In the coming decade, India’s weapons diplomacy could help usher in a more multipolar security landscape—one no longer defined solely by U.S.-China tensions, but increasingly shaped by the assertiveness of emerging actors wielding influence through technology, trade, and yes, missiles. Arms exports, when deployed judiciously, can become instruments of credibility and cohesion. For India, they already are. Its model offers capability without coercion—a signature of 21st-century middle power statecraft.