The Caspian Sea—shared by Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkmenistan, Iran, and Azerbaijan—is more than a vast body of water. Spanning over 370,000 square kilometers, it serves as a critical lifeline, sustaining biodiversity, bolstering economies, and preserving cultural heritage. Yet, its survival is precarious, drawing unsettling parallels to the tragic decline of the Aral Sea—a stark reminder of what unchecked exploitation can wreak.

Once the fourth-largest lake in the world, the Aral Sea has become a global symbol of environmental catastrophe. Decades of excessive water diversion for agriculture have drained its waters, leaving toxic dust storms and economic devastation in their wake. Entire ecosystems have disappeared, and the communities that depended on them have been thrust into poverty and despair.

The Caspian Sea is now teetering on a similar brink. Over the last 30 years, water levels have dropped nearly three meters, with forecasts suggesting a staggering potential decline of up to 18 meters by the end of this century. In Kazakhstan, shorelines have receded by as much as 18 kilometers, revealing an ominous trajectory. Without immediate intervention, the Caspian risks becoming yet another cautionary tale of irreversible environmental collapse.

The warning signs are clear. The endemic Caspian seal population has plummeted from over a million to just 70,000. Meanwhile, almost all Caspian sturgeon species were listed as critically endangered in 2022, with the sterlet as the sole exception. These figures underscore the urgent need to protect the fragile ecosystems that sustain both marine life and human livelihoods.

The Aral Sea’s collapse extended far beyond environmental damage, leaving profound human scars. By the 1990s, its water had grown so salty that only flounders could survive. Now, echoes of this devastation reverberate around the Caspian. In Berezovka, a village near Kazakhstan’s Karachaganak oil field, toxic emissions led to severe health crises, forcing the community to relocate—a haunting preview of what could unfold on a larger scale.

Fishing communities are especially vulnerable. As fish stocks dwindle and water quality deteriorates, their livelihoods disappear. Industries dependent on the Caspian’s vitality, such as tourism and shipping, face a similarly bleak outlook. For the millions who rely on this vital resource, the stakes are unbearably high.

The Aral Sea’s downfall stemmed from the pursuit of short-term economic gain at the expense of sustainability. The Caspian faces a comparable dilemma. Decades of oil and gas extraction have polluted its waters and left its ecosystems fragile. Many of the contracts governing these operations were inked in an era of lax environmental oversight, and the persistent lack of transparency exacerbates the harm while sidelining local communities.

Unlike the Aral, however, the Caspian’s fate is not yet sealed. Governments, corporations, and civil society have a narrow but critical window to avert further disaster. Adopting cleaner technologies, enforcing stricter environmental regulations, and ensuring transparency in industrial operations are non-negotiable steps. Restoration projects, underpinned by international cooperation, must also take priority to repair the damage already inflicted.

The Caspian Sea’s survival transcends regional boundaries; it is a global responsibility. It stands as both a cautionary tale of environmental neglect and a beacon of potential redemption. By learning from past mistakes and embracing sustainable practices, we can preserve the Caspian as a source of life, culture, and prosperity. The time to act is now.