Since October 7, 2023, the Middle East has been gripped by escalating chaos, with the region teetering on the edge of a broader conflict. Tensions are mounting from the Eastern Mediterranean to Iran’s borders, exacerbated by key events such as the death of Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah and Iran’s retaliatory strike on Tel Aviv on October 2.

While Iraq remains entwined with these conflicts due to its geographic proximity and historical ties to Iran, as well as its vocal opposition to Israel, a critical question arises: what does the world think about Iraq’s stability in this volatile context?

The international community recognizes that Iraq’s stability is of immense importance, not only due to its geopolitical positioning but also because of its potential economic and diplomatic roles.

Iraq represents one of the few nascent democracies in a region marked by authoritarian regimes. Despite the challenges typical of post-dictatorship transitions, Iraq stands as a beacon of democratic governance. Its success is crucial—not just for its people but for the region’s modernization. A stable, democratic Iraq holds the potential to inspire reform across the Middle East, offering a counterpoint to entrenched autocracies.

From a security perspective, Iraq’s stability is strategically important. Iraq’s alignment with the West, while sharing borders with Iran—a chief adversary of both the U.S. and Europe—positions it as a buffer state. A destabilized Iraq could become fertile ground for militias and extremist groups, feeding anti-Western ideologies. Conversely, a stable Iraq serves as a crucial barrier against the spread of these influences, acting as a moderating force between regional powers like Turkey, Iran, Israel, and the Gulf states.

Iraq has already played a pivotal diplomatic role, mediating between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and facilitating dialogue between Syria and other Arab nations. These efforts underscore the potential of a stable Iraq to bridge divides in one of the world’s most fractured regions.

Iraq’s economic stability is just as vital. As a major oil producer, with an output of between 4.5 and 5 million barrels per day, Iraq contributes around 10% of OPEC’s total output and 5% of global oil production. Its oil reserves alone make Iraq’s stability essential to the global economy. The ongoing energy crisis triggered by the Ukraine conflict has only heightened the world’s interest in securing alternative energy sources.

Iraq has emerged as a key player in these discussions, with the EU exploring energy cooperation to reduce dependence on Russian gas. Although Iraq is not yet a significant alternative, its potential has made European powers keenly aware of the need for a stable Iraq.

Moreover, the country is home to significant investments from both Western and Eastern multinational corporations, which require a secure environment to thrive. Economic growth, security, and stability are essential to safeguarding these investments and ensuring that Iraq remains a profitable destination for foreign business.

Another crucial factor driving global interest in Iraq’s stability is the ambitious Iraq Development Road. This 1,200-kilometer transport route will transform Iraq into a critical transit hub between Asia and Europe, offering an alternative to the Suez Canal. The project is set to drastically reduce shipping costs and travel times, benefiting economies along the route.

For Europe, it presents an opportunity to deepen connections with Central Asian countries and counterbalance China’s Belt and Road Initiative. But for this project to succeed, Iraq needs long-term peace and stability. Without it, the project—along with its promise of reshaping global trade—remains at risk.

Amid the turmoil engulfing the Middle East, Iraq finds itself at the center of a geopolitical storm. Its strategic location ensures that it cannot remain insulated from the chaos around it. Yet, there is a concerted global interest in keeping Iraq stable.

For many, Iraq’s role as a mediator in regional conflicts is essential to maintaining a fragile balance in the region. Furthermore, Iraq’s contributions to the global economy—whether through oil or its emerging status as a trade hub—underscore why its stability is a priority for both Western and Eastern powers.

Faced with these challenges, Iraq’s stability is not only a regional concern but a global imperative. The world cannot afford for Iraq to fall into chaos, as the ripple effects would be felt far beyond its borders.