The International Rescue Committee (IRC) has released its annual Emergency Watchlist, identifying the 20 countries most at risk of worsening humanitarian crises in 2026. The report arrives at a moment the organization describes as uniquely perilous, shaped by intensifying conflict, shrinking global solidarity, and a profound mismatch between humanitarian need and political will.

At the top of this year’s list are Sudan, the Occupied Palestinian Territory, and South Sudan—countries the IRC describes as “stark examples of the devastating impact” of what it calls a “New World Disorder.” Together, they illustrate how geopolitical fragmentation, protracted violence, and the erosion of international norms are converging to produce unprecedented levels of human suffering.

The Watchlist paints a bleak picture of the global landscape. There are now more active conflicts worldwide than at any point since the Second World War. An estimated 239 million people require humanitarian assistance, while more than 117 million have been forcibly displaced from their homes. Meanwhile, 2025 is on track to become the deadliest year ever recorded for humanitarian workers, underscoring the growing risks faced by those attempting to deliver aid on the front lines.

Despite these escalating needs, the IRC warns that the global response is moving in the opposite direction. Humanitarian funding has fallen by roughly 50 percent over the past year. According to the organization’s estimates, these reductions could result in 1.8 million additional deaths in 2025 alone, including as many as 700,000 children under the age of five.

Against this backdrop of retreat, the European Union stands out as one of the few major donors proposing to scale up its humanitarian commitments. The European Union’s proposed humanitarian aid budget is set to reach €25 billion for the 2028–2034 funding cycle under the next Multiannual Financial Framework.

Yet the IRC cautions that headline figures alone will not be enough. It is “essential,” the report argues, that the expanded budget be directed far more decisively toward fragile and conflict-affected states. In 2023, just 8 percent of the EU’s foreign aid spending went to countries on the IRC Watchlist, amounting to $3.3 billion—the lowest share allocated to these high-risk countries since 2013.

That figure, the IRC notes, lags behind comparable donors. The United States directed 19 percent of its aid to Watchlist countries, while the United Kingdom allocated 14 percent. Several EU member states also outpaced the bloc-wide average, including Sweden at 23 percent and Germany at 10 percent. More broadly, the EU disbursed only 15 percent of its foreign aid to fragile and conflict-affected states in 2023.

Founded in 1933 at the call of Albert Einstein, the IRC works in more than 40 countries and 28 U.S. cities, supporting communities affected by conflict, displacement, and climate-related crises. Its mandate spans emergency relief, health care, education, economic recovery, and long-term resilience.

Commenting on the report, Imogen Sudbery, Executive Director of IRC Belgium, said the EU is facing “one of its toughest tests” at a moment when humanitarian need is surging, and global support is collapsing.

“The Commission’s move to scale up its humanitarian aid budget under the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) shows its determination to meet the moment,” Sudbery said. “Now it is vital that member states and the European Parliament support these budget proposals, and ensure that it is not rolled back as negotiations continue.”

She added that the next challenge will be ensuring that funding reaches the countries most in need. “It is essential that this new budget is used to dramatically scale up support to fragile and conflict-affected states. The EU’s contribution to Watchlist countries dropped to just 8% of its foreign aid spend in 2023, with $3.3 billion marking its lowest share to Watchlist countries since 2013. This is a lower portion of the EU’s total aid budget than the U.S. (19%) and UK (14%), plus some of its own member states, such as Sweden (23%) and Germany (10%). More broadly, the EU disbursed 15% of its foreign aid to fragile and conflict-affected states in 2023,” she said.

While the humanitarian outlook remains grim, Sudbery argued that the new MFF presents an opportunity the EU cannot afford to squander: to support vulnerable communities, to protect European citizens from crises that transcend borders, and to establish itself as a credible humanitarian leader capable of shaping an aid system that is effective, sustainable, and fit for the future.

“The international order is at a crossroads,” she warned. “Whether it emerges stronger or in even greater disorder will depend largely on whether the EU chooses to step up.”

The Watchlist makes clear that the collapse of global support is not merely a failure of compassion but the consequence of structural forces. The “New World Disorder,” as the IRC defines it, is driven by intensifying geopolitical rivalries, shifting alliances, and increasingly transactional diplomacy. These dynamics, the report argues, are fueling the very crises now engulfing Watchlist countries.

“What begins in crisis-affected states will not stay there,” the report cautions.

That message is echoed by David Miliband, President and CEO of the IRC and a former UK foreign secretary, who stressed that today’s humanitarian emergencies are neither accidental nor unavoidable.

“What the IRC is seeing on the ground is not a tragic accident,” Miliband said. “The world is not simply failing to respond to crisis; actions and words are producing, prolonging, and rewarding it.”

He pointed to Sudan—ranked first on the Watchlist for the third consecutive year—as emblematic of this disorder. The conflict there has now become the largest humanitarian crisis ever recorded.

“This year’s Watchlist is a testament to misery, but it is also a warning,” Miliband said. “Without urgent action from those with power to make a difference, 2026 risks becoming the most dangerous year yet.”

The IRC, he added, will continue delivering life-saving assistance, but warned that “disorder begets disorder.” The choice, he argued, is between renewed vision and further retreat.

To confront this reality, the IRC is urging the EU and its member states to pursue a focused set of actions to restore credibility and effectiveness to the humanitarian system. Chief among them is the need to reassert respect for International Humanitarian Law by imposing tangible consequences on those who violate the laws of war, while also guaranteeing safe and unimpeded access for humanitarian aid through stronger frontline response capacity and the insulation of humanitarian operations from political and military bargaining.

The organization further calls on the EU to realign its funding priorities by directing at least 60 percent of official development assistance to fragile and conflict-affected states, paired with more flexible, multi-year financing that allows aid to adapt to evolving crises. At the same time, the IRC emphasizes scaling up proven, high-impact interventions—including cash assistance, preventative health care, and simplified treatment for child malnutrition—and defending the rights of refugees and displaced people by upholding international refugee law, protecting the right to asylum, and expanding legal pathways to safety.

The urgency of these recommendations is underscored by the countries at the center of the 2026 Emergency Watchlist: Sudan, the Occupied Palestinian Territory, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Haiti, Myanmar, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Lebanon—places where the consequences of inaction are already being felt and where the trajectory of global humanitarian engagement may soon be decided.