The conflict in Ukraine has reached a critical juncture where neither side can gain a decisive advantage. At this bifurcation point, the issue of foreign aid to Ukraine from NATO, Japan, and South Korea, as well as to Russia from China, Iran, and North Korea, comes to the fore. The transition of this confrontation to a new stage hinges on a key question: will South Korea, one of the most technologically advanced countries, decide to supply lethal weapons to Ukraine?

The United States and European military economies are struggling to keep up with the pace of the conflict. In contrast, Seoul’s fresh, untouched military power could potentially tip the scales, not in Russia’s favor, or at least provide Ukraine with more time. To understand this decision, one must consider the geopolitical situation surrounding the Korean peninsula. For those well-versed in this area, it’s clear that South Korea is unlikely to transfer lethal weapons to Ukraine if it would jeopardize its own security.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to North Korea was no coincidence. Through this visit, Moscow sent a clear message to Seoul: good relations between Russia and South Korea could be severely damaged by one rash action. In such a scenario, the threat to Seoul’s security and national interests would increase significantly. Russia possesses vast military and technological potential, which it could share with North Korea. This capability serves as a major deterrent for Seoul against supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine.

However, the situation could change under pressure from the United States. So far, President Yoon Suk Yeol has managed to resist Washington’s pressure. Yet, the growing ties between Moscow and Pyongyang could become a persuasive argument for lobbying arms supplies to Ukraine. Such hints have already been voiced by Jang Ho-jin, head of the National Security Office, who announced a review of military cooperation with Ukraine. Realistically, these statements are likely aimed at the domestic audience, testing public opinion on such decisions. Public opinion polls indicate that the South Korean population largely opposes getting involved in another country’s conflict, especially when it might endanger their own security.

What can South Korea offer Ukraine? It could primarily provide 155-mm artillery shells and air defense systems. It could also supply K9 self-propelled artillery systems and modern K2 Black Panther tanks. However, any delivery of both ammunition and weapon systems could alter the balance of power on the Korean peninsula, prompting North Korea to receive similar support from Russia.

What could Russia provide to North Korea in return? Firstly, technology. Russia is among the most militarily advanced nations, and the array of weapons that Kim Jong-Un’s regime might be interested in is quite extensive. This includes air defense systems, which are either outdated or underdeveloped in North Korea. Secondly, electronic warfare systems are an area where Russia has made significant advancements. Thirdly, fighter aircraft—North Korea’s current technology is significantly behind that of South Korea, so acquiring modern Russian fighters could shift the regional balance. Additionally, Russia’s extensive nuclear capabilities and the potential to extend a nuclear umbrella over North Korea add another layer of complexity to the situation.

Experts generally agree that South Korea is keen to maintain friendly relations with Russia and ensure stability on the Korean Peninsula, recognizing Moscow’s critical role in this matter. “Russia is a strategic partner that can play an important role in the Korean peninsula issue, and our security and economic interests are at stake,” Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul stated during a television interview. “The South Korean government should also protect Koreans’ lives and businesses in Russia and, for this reason, communication at a necessary level with Moscow is absolutely required,” he added.

Lee Ho-chul, a political science professor at Incheon National University, noted that Seoul was conveying to Moscow that it did not wish to escalate tensions. “NATO is remote from us as Russia is close to the Korean peninsula. Seoul is seeking to mend fences with Moscow and sending an indirect message to Moscow that it does not want to see their ties deteriorate further,” he said.

According to Park Won-gon, a political science professor at Ewha Womans University, South Korea’s “unspoken” message to Moscow is clear: it will not supply lethal weapons to Ukraine.

All these factors allow President Yoon Suk Yeol to approach the decision to supply lethal weapons to Ukraine with a cautious mindset. No external pressure should force a decision in favor of arms deliveries, as this could potentially ignite another military conflict, escalating into a direct confrontation. It’s crucial to remember that Pyongyang possesses nuclear weapons, and there is no certainty that Kim Jong-Un wouldn’t use them if provoked.