
ECOWAS is Having a Brexit Moment
In 2001, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) adopted a Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance to prevent unconstitutional changes in government and ensure that power transitions occurred through democratic means. Yet, in the twenty-two years since this landmark text was passed, the region has seen no fewer than fifteen coups.
The successive overthrows of Mali’s Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta in August 2020, Burkina Faso’s Roch Marc Christian Kaboré in 2022, and Niger’s Mohammed Bazoum in 2023, plunged ECOWAS into a deep crisis. This crisis reached its peak in late January when the military leaders of these three countries abruptly announced their exit from the organization. This was in response to unusually harsh sanctions and threats of military intervention directed at Niger. The sanctions included the suspension of all commercial and financial transactions, the freezing of assets held in the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO), and in regional development banks. Additionally, essential goods and services like medicine and electricity were restricted.
News of this collective decision to leave ECOWAS sent shockwaves throughout the region and beyond. On that fateful January day, the bloc experienced its own “Brexit” moment, with significant implications. Observers began questioning the very survival of ECOWAS.
Decades of regional integration progress now hang in the balance. ECOWAS’s attempts to resolve the standoff have been inconsistent and insufficient, especially as the organization has lost credibility over the years. It condemned military coups but failed to address other unconstitutional acts, such as illegal third presidential terms. In late February, ECOWAS lifted all sanctions on Niger and Mali, although the juntas had made no conciliatory gestures.
Months before announcing their withdrawal, the three countries formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), a defense pact designed to resist pressure and intimidation from ECOWAS. On July 6, the AES held its inaugural summit, vowing not to rejoin ECOWAS.
The very next day, at an ordinary meeting in Nigeria, ECOWAS appointed two mediators, Togo’s President Faure Gnassingbé, and Bassirou Diomaye Faye, the newly elected president of Senegal, to negotiate a return of the AES countries. Despite initial welcoming gestures from the breakaway countries, no constructive solutions have yet emerged.
Scholars and conflict resolution experts advocate for resolving stalemates by making attractive offers or focusing on mutually beneficial outcomes. Roger Fisher and William Ury’s concept of principled negotiation emphasizes leveraging parties’ interests to create value. The current West African situation demands innovative solutions and mutually beneficial outcomes. A mere invitation for the breakaway countries to return without addressing AES’s grievances with ECOWAS is futile.
These grievances include ECOWAS’s inaction against terrorism, its perceived foreign (French) influence, and a departure from true Pan-Africanism principles. There are, however, multiple shared interests that negotiators could leverage for creative solutions. Insecurity, climate change, and poverty are pressing issues. Humanitarian organizations agree that violence and insecurity are escalating in the central Sahel region, encompassing Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.
Research shows that violence and insecurity often stem from poverty, human rights violations, and poor local governance. Unfortunately, ECOWAS has failed to respond with effective income-generating projects. Additionally, intra-regional trade remains low, hindering West African countries from moving up value chains, jointly processing raw materials, and manufacturing durable goods.
The absence of sustainable regional value chains, especially in manufacturing, is a key issue ECOWAS mediators could turn into an opportunity. Designing and implementing inclusive regional industrial projects with contributions from AES countries could foster reconciliation.
Prominent institutions like the World Bank and the International Labor Organization support industrialization as a means to generate employment and stimulate economic growth. Regional industrialization programs in Africa also promote integration.
The automotive industry is prolific in job creation and accounted for 8.3% of total EU manufacturing employment in 2023. In Africa, South Africa, Morocco, and Egypt lead the automotive sector. In West Africa, Nigeria and Ghana are notable producers. Given ECOWAS’s population of 400 million, there is considerable room for growth, particularly in developing industry-specific skills like spare parts manufacturing.
In October 2018, experts and representatives of ECOWAS member states validated the ECOWAS Automotive Policy Framework, which aims to boost the automotive industry by enhancing member states’ capacity in vehicle assembling, production, and marketing.
A regional automotive industry in West Africa would have several advantages. It would encourage engineers and companies across different countries to collaborate through interdependent clusters. Production could be decentralized, allowing countries to specialize in manufacturing specific spare parts. With passenger cars averaging 30,000 parts, this could create numerous high-quality jobs and reduce poverty rates. Economic growth spurred by quality jobs would make it harder for terror groups to recruit, thereby improving security in unstable areas. The region is rich in natural resources extensively used in the car industry, such as gold, silver, lead, iron ore, cobalt, bauxite, and lithium. Developing a regional automotive industry would require pooling financial resources and managing mineral processing facilities jointly.
A regional industrial project with mutual benefits could entice AES countries to consider sharing their mineral resources with ECOWAS while maintaining their political unity.