
November’s COP29 Climate Conference was Middling
Climate negotiations are inherently complex, but the introduction of financial commitments makes them particularly contentious. Central to the debates at COP29, held in Baku, Azerbaijan, in November, was a critical question: how much should wealthy nations, historically responsible for the lion’s share of global fossil fuel emissions, contribute to help poorer, more vulnerable countries combat climate change?
Delegates from around the globe worked tirelessly, navigating two intense weeks of frustration-filled discussions. At several junctures, it seemed the talks might collapse without an agreement.
Meanwhile, the sidelines of COP29 hosted their own drama, with open discussions and behind-closed-doors negotiations shaping the broader narrative. Following COP28, hosted by the United Arab Emirates, and COP27, hosted by Egypt, Azerbaijan took the helm as host country, extending the trend of oil and gas-dependent economies presiding over the conference. In 2022, Azerbaijan’s hydrocarbon sector accounted for nearly half its GDP and a staggering 92% of export revenues. Under President Ilham Aliyev, the country has openly embraced a “realistic” and pragmatic approach to climate change.
In his opening address, Aliyev accused Western countries of hypocrisy and double standards on climate policy. He highlighted the European Union’s push to increase gas imports from Azerbaijan as evidence of this inconsistency. Further controversy arose when he criticized France for maintaining “colonial rule” over Corsica and its remote overseas territories, such as New Caledonia, prompting the French environment minister to cancel a planned visit.
Despite the contentious rhetoric, Azerbaijan used COP29 to burnish its credentials as a prospective leader in green energy. SOCAR Green, the state’s renewable energy arm, announced significant partnerships with Saudi Arabia and China, focusing on solar and wind farm projects. Additionally, Azerbaijan strengthened regional ties by signing a memorandum to establish a “Green Energy Corridor” connecting Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Europe.
Negotiators at COP29 ultimately agreed to raise at least $300 billion annually by 2035 to support poorer nations, with developed countries leading the charge and developing nations encouraged to contribute voluntarily. Although this commitment triples the $100 billion annual goal set 15 years ago, it falls significantly short of the $1.3 trillion per year requested by developing nations. Nevertheless, the agreement includes a provision to develop a roadmap for gradually scaling up funding to meet this target.
The agreement was swiftly criticized. India’s chief negotiator dismissed the $300 billion pledge as “a paltry sum.” Supporters countered that securing any deal was preferable to leaving COP29 empty-handed. Climate analysts noted that, while insufficient, the agreement represents a triumph of multilateral cooperation amid challenging geopolitical conditions.
Beyond the financial debates, COP29 saw progress in implementing Article 6 of the Paris Climate Agreement, establishing an international carbon trading market. This breakthrough followed nearly a decade of negotiations and aims to create a regulated system for trading carbon credits between companies and countries. Existing voluntary markets have faced significant criticism, with investigations uncovering that many credits failed to achieve actual emissions reductions. Proponents of the new system argue it could channel billions of dollars toward helping poorer nations combat climate change. Yet skeptics caution that its regulatory framework might lack the rigor to ensure effectiveness.
Concerns over Donald Trump’s return to the White House loomed over the conference. Delegates worried that a second Trump presidency could lead to another U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, as occurred in 2017. Such a move could severely undermine global climate efforts.
Looking ahead, COP30 in Brazil will serve as a critical milestone. The summit will focus on assessing updated climate targets for 2035. Analysts have called it potentially the most pivotal gathering since the Paris Agreement’s inception in 2015. All countries are required to submit updated plans by February detailing how they intend to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The United Kingdom, Brazil, and the UAE have already submitted their plans.
At COP29, a coalition of nations, including all European Union member states, Canada, Mexico, and Norway, pledged to align their climate targets with the Paris Agreement’s aspirational goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The United States notably abstained from joining this commitment.
Experts hailed this collective pledge as a hopeful sign amid mounting challenges to the energy transition. With the world continuing to shatter temperature records yearly, the urgency for effective action has never been greater.