In November, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced that the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party would pause all accession talks with the European Union until 2028. This decision ignited public outrage in the former Soviet republic, drawing support from Georgia’s President Salome Zourabichvili and fueling widespread protests.

The unrest shows no signs of abating, as large swaths of the population take to the streets, prompting a forceful response from police. Meanwhile, countries like Lithuania have called for sanctions targeting Kobakhidze and other key figures in the Georgian Dream party.

This dramatic pivot raises pressing questions: Why has Georgia suddenly suspended its EU ambitions, and what does this mean for the country’s future?

A closer examination reveals the underlying rationale. For Georgia, the status quo offers tangible benefits. The country already enjoys visa-free travel to the EU and certain economic privileges. Pushing further toward membership, however, brings significant challenges. The EU demands rigorous legislative reforms, which can be difficult for any Eastern European country to implement. For Georgia, such requirements might be more than its political fabric can currently bear.

Additionally, Georgian Dream leaders are navigating a geopolitical tightrope, attempting to balance relations with the West and Russia. Further accession talks with the EU risk alienating Russia, a powerful neighbor with vested interests in Georgia. This is particularly true given the influence of Georgian billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, whose fortunes Moscow closely watches. Political maneuvers on this scale often require delicate handling, as any perceived misstep could provoke a significant backlash.

Tensions escalated when the EU criticized Georgian elections as unfair, prompting a sharp rebuke from the Georgian government. Prime Minister Kobakhidze accused the European Parliament of turning into a “naked weapon of blackmail against Georgia, which is the greatest shame for the European Union,” calling its recent resolutions against his government “full of lies and insults.” Despite these accusations, the Prime Minister left the door open for future negotiations, asserting that Georgia could resume talks “with dignity and justice and without blackmail.” This balancing act reflects a larger struggle for identity and independence in Georgian politics, further complicating its relationship with the EU.

So, what does this mean for the EU?

Brussels is dissatisfied. Siding with pro-EU protesters, the EU released a statement condemning the Georgian government’s actions. “The Georgian people have once again taken to the streets to reaffirm their aspirations for joining the European Union. The EU strongly condemns the violence against peaceful protesters, who are standing firm for their European and democratic future. These actions by the Georgian government have direct consequences on our relationship,” the statement read. This rhetoric underscores the growing tensions between Georgia’s government and European institutions.

However, Georgia’s move could have broader implications. The EU may respond with sanctions, though GD likely hopes allies such as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán could block such measures. Yet, the EU’s need for Georgia as a strategic partner may complicate its response. The stakes are high: Georgia’s decision to pause EU accession could set a troubling precedent for other candidate countries frustrated with the Union’s demanding requirements.

Take North Macedonia, for example, which has balked at Brussels’ insistence on amending its constitution to appease Bulgaria. Similarly, Moldova, though outwardly pursuing EU membership, may reconsider. While officially on the path to joining the EU, even Serbia remains reluctant to sanction Russia or resolve its disputes with Kosovo. These cases illustrate the broader challenges of EU expansion, especially in regions fraught with geopolitical complexities.

Georgia’s decision has far-reaching consequences, potentially stalling the EU’s eastward expansion. Critics argue that the EU’s primary motivation for expanding eastward is to counter Russian influence. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, for instance, spurred the EU to accelerate accession talks with Ukraine, Moldova, and Bosnia. Thus, Georgia’s retreat is a significant setback, sending alarm bells ringing in Brussels and other candidate nations. It reveals the growing divide between the EU’s aspirations and the realities on the ground.

Georgians continue to protest, demonstrating a clear desire for EU membership. This fervor reflects a widespread belief that joining the EU could transform their nation, aligning it more closely with the perceived prosperity of Western Europe. Many in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus view EU membership as a gateway to a better future, often holding their governments accountable for the region’s challenges. As such, any action that widens the gap between East and West will likely provoke strong public opposition—as seen in Georgia.

While Georgia’s EU aspirations are on hold, they are not necessarily abandoned. To bridge the current divide, the EU and Georgian Dream must engage in thoughtful dialogue and mutual compromise. Only then can Georgia’s European dream be revived in earnest.