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The U.S. continues to drive growth as the largest LNG exporter, reflecting its sustained investment in liquefaction projects and increased production capabilities.

On November 25, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) released a report titled “Global natural gas market may experience a tighter supply-demand balance this winter.” This report highlighted multiple factors that could impact global natural gas balances, including weather conditions. Foremost among these is the status of LNG supply growth: “We expect limited LNG capacity additions to come online this winter, mostly in the U.S.” The EIA further noted that climate phenomena, such as the transition from El Niño to La Niña, could intensify natural gas demand, creating greater competition for spot LNG supplies between Europe and Asia.

Natural gas remains a cornerstone of U.S. national security and climate policy—a stance reinforced by successive administrations. The incoming Trump administration, in particular, is expected to champion strong domestic production of natural gas and oil, positioning America’s energy resources as strategic assets capable of stabilizing domestic prices and supporting allies abroad. Critics, however, argue that efforts to slow leasing on federal lands, alongside delays in pipeline infrastructure and hydrocarbon investments, have constrained production and driven up costs. The Trump team contends that even the perception of production constraints can elevate prices in the global commodity market.

Some voices within the incoming administration advocate for collaboration between U.S. and European businesses to expand LNG export capacity, construct receiving terminals in Europe, and build pipelines on both sides of the Atlantic. These proponents urge the DOE to approve all pending LNG export applications, especially those already greenlit by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) or exempt from its authorization. While FERC operates as an independent agency, the administration has pushed for expedited decisions on LNG export facilities and pipeline applications to ensure adequate supply for domestic and international markets.

In 2024, Bloomberg’s Verity Ratcliffe reported on the potential market effects of delayed LNG project commissioning. At the Adipec conference in Abu Dhabi, Shell Plc’s executive vice president for LNG, Cederic Cremers, predicted a more gradual supply ramp-up rather than a sudden influx. Cremers highlighted that supply additions for 2023 and 2024 remained below 10 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) annually, falling short of market demand. With global LNG demand on the rise, project delays are cushioning the market against the impact of new supply, maintaining tighter conditions.

In September 2023, Bloomberg’s Stephen Stapczynski reported that Shell is exploring LNG export projects in North America and Africa to meet the robust demand for natural gas during the energy transition. At the Gastech 2023 conference in Singapore, Cremers emphasized the importance of continued investment. Shell’s diverse portfolio, which includes a facility in Canada, is projected to expand significantly by 2030, reflecting LNG’s central role in the company’s strategic vision.

Shell anticipates a more than 50% increase in global LNG demand by 2040, driven primarily by China, South Asia, and Southeast Asia growth. These regions’ transitions from coal to gas underline LNG’s critical role in reducing emissions and complementing European renewable energy expansion. Shell’s fully integrated model—spanning production, shipping, and trading—enables operational optimization and enhances global energy security. In 2023, Shell sold 67 million tonnes of LNG, up from 66 million tonnes in 2022, with further growth expected as new facilities come online.

One of Shell’s key innovations is LNG bunkering, which addresses marine transport’s increasing demand for cleaner fuels. The company’s expansive bunkering network spans 26 locations in 12 countries. Additionally, Shell operates over 18 LNG carriers and 65 charters, accounting for 11% of the global LNG fleet. The acquisition of Pavilion Energy, expected to be finalized in early 2025, will further bolster its portfolio, adding 6.5 million tonnes annually and expanding its presence in strategic markets across Asia and Europe.

Laurent David, General Delegate of the International Group of LNG Importers, examined global LNG market trends in 2023, identifying moderate growth with pronounced regional variations. Global LNG imports reached 52 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2023, a modest 2.1% increase. By September 2024, Asia’s LNG demand surged by 10% year over year, while Europe’s imports declined by 20%, driven by falling gas demand and the continued expansion of renewable energy.

On the export side, the U.S. maintained its position as the largest LNG exporter, underpinned by sustained investments in liquefaction projects. Conversely, countries like Egypt halted liquefaction operations to address domestic energy needs. David projects that most incremental LNG capacity through 2025 will come from U.S. projects already under construction, such as Golden Pass, which has faced delays to 2026 due to contractor bankruptcy.

Stephen Goltz, Director of North American Energy Infrastructure at S&P Global Ratings, forecasts that the Biden administration’s pause on LNG approvals will lift in 2025, enabling projects like LNG Canada and Cheniere’s Corpus Christi expansion to proceed. However, many major capacity additions, including Rio Grande and Sabine Pass, are not expected to come online until 2027.

As the global LNG landscape evolves, developing regions, especially in Asia, are set to drive demand, supported by new applications such as LNG-powered maritime transport. The U.S. and Qatar are poised to lead supply growth, with significant capacity expansions anticipated by 2030. This dynamic underscores LNG’s enduring role in the energy transition, balancing environmental concerns with the growing need for global energy security.

This article was originally posted in World Oil.

While advocating for systemic change over 4 decades, Gordon Feller has been called upon to help leaders running some of the world’s major organizations: World Bank, UN, World Economic Forum, Lockheed, Apple, IBM, Ford, the national governments of Germany, Canada, US – to name a few. With 40 years in Silicon Valley, Feller’s 300+ published articles cover the full spectrum of energy/environment/technology issues, reporting from more than 40 countries.