The global balance of power is shifting as U.S. influence recedes, leaving Europe to choose between military self-reliance or economic alignment with China.

The election of Donald Trump heralds a fundamental shift in global power dynamics—one that presents a challenge for Europe and a new horizon of possibilities for China. With his “America First” agenda, Trump has made it clear that he intends to pull the United States back from its global commitments, diminishing its role as the world’s dominant force. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping is working to expand Beijing’s international influence, primarily through his Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This potential reordering of the global order could force European nations to reconsider their alliances and strategic priorities in the coming years.

Trump has long voiced skepticism about NATO, particularly regarding the financial burden disproportionately carried by the U.S. His insistence on reducing American defense expenditures in Europe suggests that Washington’s influence in the region will inevitably wane. For decades, the U.S. has been the undisputed global superpower, but that status is now up for debate. The Biden administration’s robust support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia could be in jeopardy, meaning a dramatic shift in how Europe defends itself. With American military aid potentially drying up, European nations may have to rapidly build up their own military capabilities—an unlikely scenario given their long-standing reliance on U.S. protection since 1945. The continent is left with two primary alternatives: align with Vladimir Putin’s vision of an expanding Russia or turn to Xi’s growing economic and diplomatic reach.

For years, as the United States has scaled back its involvement in South America and the Middle East, China has eagerly filled the void. Many assume NATO’s long-standing presence will prevent Trump from abandoning Europe, but he has shown little interest in preserving historical alliances for tradition’s sake. The BRI has already proved enticing to countries in South America and Africa, many of which have adjusted their UN voting patterns and trade policies to align with Beijing. Although European economies are wealthier, Xi’s economic playbook remains effective across different regions. Should the U.S. military presence in Europe diminish, China’s economic clout may emerge as an irresistible alternative. Already, Italy’s 2023 withdrawal from the BRI was driven largely by American influence. In a future where Washington no longer guarantees European security, smaller nations may find themselves with little incentive to resist Chinese investment and trade deals.

If Trump follows through on his threats to disengage from NATO, and if Putin’s expansionism continues, Europe will have to adapt quickly. Throughout the Cold War, the American security umbrella held back the Soviet threat, but political shifts in Washington may mean a reassessment of these long-standing commitments. Europe faces two clear choices: dramatically increase defense spending and military recruitment or embrace China’s economic sphere in exchange for security guarantees. With the EU already conducting more trade with China than with the U.S., Beijing’s offer of investment and strategic protection could prove too enticing to refuse.

Crucially, Putin is unlikely to risk aggression against any country that is deeply embedded in China’s economic network. Russian imports, particularly military supplies, are heavily dependent on Chinese trade, making direct conflict with a BRI-aligned nation a costly mistake. Former Eastern Bloc nations, which once relied on Soviet economic support, now find themselves dependent on Western trade. If Trump accelerates the U.S. withdrawal from NATO, these countries will be left with a stark choice: deepen economic ties with China or risk facing Russian expansion without American military backing.

The Un-Impending Cold War

Unlike the ideological battle that defined the Cold War, the competition between Washington and Beijing is unfolding differently. There are no proxy wars or ideological standoffs—only the steady erosion of American global dominance. In regions where the U.S. once exerted control, China has stepped in, not with military interventions, but through economic diplomacy. Latin America, once the site of numerous CIA-backed coups, now increasingly falls within Beijing’s sphere of influence through financial investment and trade agreements. Washington has struggled to counter this trend, as China’s initiatives often align with capitalist interests and do not justify military intervention.

Since 2017, when Trump first redefined America’s relationship with China, the two nations have increasingly framed their interactions as a competition rather than a partnership. Washington has attempted to block China’s progress in key industries such as electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, and space exploration, but Beijing has consistently outpaced its American counterpart. With China’s reach extending across multiple continents, Xi’s next logical step is deeper engagement with Europe. While wealthier and more developed than previous BRI participants, Europe’s increasing detachment from the U.S. makes it a viable long-term target for Chinese influence. The economic barriers to entry may be higher, but the rewards—access to one of the world’s most lucrative consumer markets—could be the final piece in the puzzle marking the end of American primacy.

As U.S. influence continues to recede, the global balance of power is shifting. While it may not resemble a Cold War in the traditional sense, the reality is clear: China is filling the void left by America’s retreat, and Europe may soon find itself at a crossroads, forced to choose between military independence or economic dependence on Beijing.