After essentially allowing Afghanistan to fall apart, the CSTO now wants to mitigate the country’s instability.

As Afghanistan’s turmoil casts its long shadow over Central Asia, the region finds itself grappling with a stark reality: the spillover of instability is relentless. Terrorism, refugees, and narcotics infiltrate borders with alarming regularity, testing the resilience of neighboring nations.

The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) has proposed a bold initiative—a “security belt” encircling Afghanistan to confront these challenges. Recently endorsed by the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), this plan, first suggested by Tajik President Emomali Rahmon in 2022, has gained momentum amidst mounting concerns over the country’s further collapse.

The stakes are high, as CSTO Secretary-General Imangali Tasmagambetov warned in a sobering address: terrorism is on the rise, weapon trafficking is escalating, and illegal migration from Afghanistan threatens the stability and socio-economic fabric of Central Asia. Against this backdrop, CSTO and CIS leaders are moving swiftly to establish fortified borders in Tajikistan and form joint working groups to turn the security belt into reality.

For Central Asian nations, the security belt represents more than a defensive measure—it’s a blueprint for regional stability. In the words of its architects, the initiative seeks to mitigate immediate risks and lay the groundwork for enduring peace. The proposed framework envisions improved humanitarian access to Afghanistan, enabling the delivery of essential services like healthcare and education. This dual approach—securing borders while fostering development—aims to undercut the root causes of extremism and create a safer environment for all.

But the vision doesn’t end with security. A stabilized Afghanistan could unlock immense economic potential for Central and South Asia. Today, border restrictions and instability choke off trade and regional integration, stifling opportunities in markets brimming with untapped resources. Imagine a corridor linking resource-rich Central Asia with Pakistan’s ports, opening new trade routes and integrating landlocked nations into the global economy. Such connectivity could propel countries like Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Pakistan toward sustainable growth, provided the region can muster the trust and cooperation necessary to make this dream a reality.

The economic benefits of the security belt are rivaled only by its social promise. Central Asia, with its deep cultural ties to Afghanistan, has the potential to emerge as a vibrant tourist destination. Enhanced security could revive cross-border tourism and foster cultural exchange, enriching the region’s collective identity. Yet, the security belt’s detractors see it as a tool for geopolitical maneuvering, particularly by Russia, whose influence in Central Asia remains significant. While Moscow’s role is undeniable, the initiative’s success hinges on regional buy-in rather than external diktats.

The stakes are equally compelling for neighboring South Asia. A secure Afghanistan could transform Pakistan into a hub of investment and commerce, freeing it from cross-border threats. Reduced terrorism and fortified borders would set the stage for private-sector investments, spurring regional economic integration.

The security belt’s aspirations, however, rest on precarious foundations. Its success depends on the commitment of CSTO and CIS countries and Afghanistan’s engagement. Without buy-in from Kabul and concerted regional collaboration, the initiative risks becoming another ambitious but unrealized plan.

Still, the vision persists as a firewall against fanaticism, a lifeline for humanitarian aid, and a foundation for economic renewal. As Central Asia braces itself for an uncertain future, the security belt is a testament to collective action’s power. Whether it can transform a crisis-prone region into a nexus of growth and development remains to be seen, but the seeds of change are being sown.

The ultimate question is this: Can the security belt bridge the gap between aspiration and reality? The answer lies in today’s collaborations, which, if successful, could redraw the map of regional stability and prosperity.