The Israel-Hezbollah conflict is escalating, raising fears of broader regional involvement.

Hezbollah, a paramilitary organization based in southern Lebanon, is not just a formidable militant group but also a key political player, deeply entwined in the country’s political fabric. Led by Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah exerts significant influence in Lebanon, where it also maintains close ties with other regional resistance movements, particularly those opposing Israel, like Hamas in Gaza.

Formed in 1982 in response to Israel’s invasion of Lebanon, Hezbollah’s last major confrontation with Israel occurred during the 2006 Lebanon War. However, with the ongoing conflict in Gaza, border skirmishes between Hezbollah and Israel have flared up once again.

Hezbollah justifies its current attacks as acts of solidarity with Hamas in response to Israel’s invasion of Gaza in October 2023. While the confrontations have not escalated into a full-scale war, the intensifying airstrikes from both sides have heightened fears of a broader conflict engulfing the Middle East. High-ranking officials have emphasized the need for de-escalation strategies to avoid the conflict spiraling into a regional war.

The situation continues to worsen as cross-border attacks increase. Dr. Burcu Ozcelik, a senior researcher on Middle East security at RUSI, highlighted that Israeli forces have targeted border cities, viewing them as Hezbollah strongholds. In addition to Hezbollah, other armed groups in the region are also claiming involvement in attacks against Israel. These include the Lebanese al-Fajr Forces (military wing of al-Jamaa al-Islamiyya), Amal Movement, Qassam Brigades (Hamas), al-Quds Brigades (Palestinian Islamic Jihad), and Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades (Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, or PFLP).

From October 7, 2023, to July 31, the conflict has resulted in a staggering 8,533 cross-border attacks. Israeli forces have launched approximately 7,033 strikes, leading to the deaths of at least 601 people in Lebanon. On the other side, Hezbollah and other armed groups have mounted 1,500 attacks on Israel, killing 26 civilians and 23 soldiers.

The conflict has taken a heavy toll on both sides, with daily attacks causing extensive damage. By July 10, more than 3,200 properties had been damaged. The violence has displaced over 90,000 people in Lebanon, with 100 civilians and 366 Hezbollah members reportedly killed by Israeli strikes. In Israel, 60,000 civilians have been evacuated, and 33 people, including 10 civilians, have been killed.

International actors have expressed growing alarm over the escalating conflict. Josep Borrell, the European Union’s foreign affairs chief, warned that the risk of war spreading is high, particularly affecting southern Lebanon. Similarly, U.S. Air Force General Charles Q. Brown Jr., chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters that Israel’s continued attacks could expand the conflict, potentially drawing in Iran to support Hezbollah.

Several factors could contribute to a further escalation between Israel and Hezbollah. One key factor is Lebanon’s weakened government. With political gridlock, corruption, and fractured leadership, the government struggles to exert control beyond the capital, Beirut. This situation has provided Hezbollah with a strategic advantage, allowing it to pursue its geopolitical goals with little state interference.

Hezbollah’s military power also surpasses that of the regular Lebanese armed forces, further diminishing the likelihood of government intervention to rein in the group. Lebanon’s ongoing economic crisis exacerbates the problem. According to a World Bank report, 44% of Lebanon’s population lives below the poverty line, more than triple the rate from a decade ago. The national currency has lost over 98% of its pre-crisis value, leaving the public struggling to afford basic goods. The World Bank also projects a deepening recession, further destabilizing the country’s tourism and agricultural sectors.

Given this backdrop, the Lebanese government is unlikely to prioritize addressing Hezbollah’s activities, allowing the group and similar factions to operate with minimal state oversight. The deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza could also incite Hezbollah to launch further attacks, potentially triggering a wider escalation. Israel has already killed several senior Hezbollah military officials, including Wissam al-Tawil, Tami Said Abdalla, and Fuad Shukr, heightening the tension. Media reports alleging Hezbollah weapons stockpiles at Rafic Hariri International Airport in Beirut have only fueled the conflict’s information warfare.

Israel’s increasingly aggressive foreign policy also risks escalating the conflict. Statements from Israeli government and military officials suggest a commitment to continuing the war in Gaza, which Hezbollah cites as justification for its own attacks. Domestic dynamics within Israel could also influence the course of the conflict. Criticism of Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing government is growing, with many questioning the strategic objectives of Israel’s military operations, the soaring war costs, and the collateral damage inflicted on civilian areas.

In terms of international alliances, Hezbollah’s role as an Iranian proxy provides it with extensive resources and logistical support. The conflict’s potential to escalate further is closely tied to foreign interests, particularly through Hezbollah’s cooperation with other armed groups in the Middle East. These groups, collectively known as the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance,” are united in their opposition to Israel. An escalation could also prompt deeper intervention by external actors like the United States and Iran.

As tensions rise, several countries, including China, the United States, the United Kingdom, and France, have instructed their nationals to leave Lebanon, reflecting concerns about the growing instability.

One potential flashpoint that could further inflame the conflict is the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the former political leader of Hamas, who was killed in an explosion in Tehran. His successor, Yahya Sinwar, now leads Hamas. Haniyeh had been a central figure in Hamas-Israeli negotiations in Gaza, and his death has sparked accusations from Iran and Hezbollah, who blame Israel and vow retaliation. While some believe Haniyeh’s assassination could widen the war, it is unlikely to alter the determination of Hamas or Hezbollah to continue their fight against Israel.