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A complex interplay of political instability, religious tensions, and geopolitics shapes relations between India and Bangladesh.

An escalating crisis, fueled by Bangladesh’s political upheaval and surging anti-India sentiments, spurred India to dispatch its foreign secretary on a diplomatic visit in December. The recent arrest of a former priest from the International Society for Krishna Consciousness (ISKCON) in Dhaka has further inflamed tensions, spotlighting India’s assertive posture toward Bangladesh, especially following the collapse of Sheikh Hasina’s government. These developments underscore the fragile interplay between two nations, deeply entwined by shared culture, heritage, and geography, now facing significant geopolitical crossroads.

Bangladesh’s political crisis took center stage after the abrupt fall of Sheikh Hasina’s administration, which had long embodied a “secular dictatorship,” maintaining a precarious balance between combating Islamic fundamentalism and protecting minority rights. Her exit has paved the way for an interim government led by Muhammad Yunus, under whose leadership, violence against minorities has surged. Hindus in Bangladesh now confront increasing threats from Islamic fundamentalists, while minorities in India—particularly lower-caste Hindus—grapple with escalating hostility from religious and upper-caste Hindu extremists. This rising tide of intolerance has deepened societal divisions, threatening the delicate fabric of coexistence in both countries.

The origins of these challenges are deeply rooted in the colonial history of the Indian subcontinent. The British “divide-and-rule” policy laid the groundwork for partition, eventually leading to the emergence of three nations. India, despite retaining its secular constitutional framework, faces mounting threats from religious fundamentalists gaining footholds in political institutions. In Bangladesh, a shift from its secular founding constitution to the adoption of Islam as the state religion marks a significant ideological departure. These contrasting trajectories reflect the evolving identity crises in both nations, each struggling to reconcile their historical legacies with present-day political realities.

Strategically, Bangladesh’s significance for India cannot be overstated. Its proximity to the Siliguri Corridor—a narrow strip of land connecting northeast India to the mainland—positions Bangladesh as a vital geopolitical actor. However, anti-India sentiments in Dhaka complicate India’s efforts to maintain regional stability. Both China and Pakistan, eager to exploit the situation, stand poised to deepen their influence in Bangladesh, potentially destabilizing the region further. China’s growing clout in South Asia, exemplified by Nepalese Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s recent overtures to Beijing, adds another layer of complexity. Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has strengthened its strategic partnership with the United States to counterbalance Chinese and Pakistani influence, a policy that may gain renewed momentum under the Trump administration.

During Trump’s first term, India effectively leveraged its relationship with the United States. The high-profile “Namaste Trump” event was a diplomatic coup, enabling India to sidestep international criticism and consolidate its stance on controversial issues, such as the abrogation of Article 370 in Kashmir. A second Trump term could provide India with fresh opportunities to counter anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh, but such efforts must extend beyond symbolic gestures. While the Foreign Secretary’s visit to Dhaka is a step in the right direction, a ministerial-level engagement and a comprehensive strategy are urgently required to address the crisis.

Bangladesh’s political instability also threatens its economic foundations. Bangladesh’s garment industry is critical in global supply chains as the world’s second-largest textile exporter. Prolonged unrest risks disrupting production and forcing international buyers to seek alternatives, which would devastate Bangladesh’s economy. Job losses, declining exports, and widespread social unrest would compound the country’s challenges. The interim government must prioritize economic stability, as its ability to govern effectively hinges on ensuring sustained growth and development.

The challenge of navigating religious pluralism lies at the heart of these geopolitical tensions. In India, the imposition of caste hierarchies and the push for Sanskrit as a religious lingua franca have alienated many Hindus from their cultural roots. Meanwhile, in Bangladesh, the emphasis on Arabic as a religious language has similarly distanced citizens from their linguistic heritage. These cultural and linguistic dissonances deepen societal divides and create fertile ground for radicalization. Addressing these fractures requires a renewed focus on secular education and fostering a shared sense of identity from an early age.

South Asia’s geopolitical landscape remains volatile, characterized by governance challenges, identity crises, and economic vulnerabilities. True harmony demands accepting and celebrating religious, linguistic, and cultural diversity. Efforts to impose a singular narrative of identity risk perpetuating cycles of exclusion and violence. Without mutual respect and collaborative efforts, India and Bangladesh risk exacerbating their divides and squandering opportunities to build a stable and prosperous future. Communal harmony is a moral imperative and an urgent necessity for ensuring the region’s stability and growth.

EBY Johny is a PhD candidate at the University of Warsaw, Poland. His research interests include International Relations, with a specific focus on South Asia’s geopolitical dynamics.

Amrutha Mary Varkey is an economist and author of 'The Rural to Urban Transition in Developing Countries: Urbanisation and Peri-urban Land Markets' published in 2023.

Santhosh Mathew, a recipient of the Best Teacher Award at Pondicherry University for four consecutive years, holds a Ph.D. in International Relations and Politics and a Master's in Mass Communication. He has served as an Assistant Professor in multiple institutions, authored two books, presented research at international conferences, and published in reputed journals. His expertise includes international relations, political economy, media studies, and human rights, and he has guided numerous postgraduate projects. He is also an active member of academic associations and advisory committees.