India has been having a good run as of late.

On January 26, India marked its 75th year as a sovereign democratic republic, solidifying its status as a rising power in global affairs. According to the Lowy Institute’s Asia Power Index 2024, India now ranks as the third most powerful country in Asia, surpassing Russia and Japan. This latest assessment, spanning six years of data, is considered the most comprehensive evaluation of regional power to date.

India’s growing strength is further underscored by the Global Firepower Index 2025, which ranks it the fourth most powerful military globally, trailing only the United States, Russia, and China. This position is primarily driven by sustained defense spending, modernization efforts, and a vast military workforce. In 2023, India emerged as the fourth-largest global military spender, with its expenditure rising by 4.2% compared to the previous year.

India enjoys a unique blend of demographic and strategic advantages. With a population that recently surpassed China’s, it is now the world’s most populous nation, boasting the highest birth rate globally. Every hour, 2,651 babies are born in India—more than twice China’s rate and over five times that of the U.S.

Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has embarked on an ambitious path of defense modernization and socio-economic reform. Its growing strategic importance is evident in its alliances, particularly with Quad partners such as the U.S. and Japan. While relations with Beijing remain tense, India stands to benefit from a shifting geopolitical landscape, especially with Donald Trump’s return to office. A long-time ally of Modi, Trump will likely lean on India’s growing influence in his approach to China and Russia.

However, the same cannot be said for Japan, which has witnessed a relative decline in power due to economic stagnation and demographic challenges. Conversely, India ranks third in the Asia Power Index’s future resources measure, trailing only the U.S. and China. Meanwhile, Beijing’s influence appears to be plateauing, with mounting economic and demographic headwinds.

India’s rapid rise is anchored in its economic transformation, driven by digitalization, manufacturing expansion, and technological advancements. Government initiatives like “Make in India” and “Atmanirbhar Bharat” have further positioned the country as an industrial and economic powerhouse, attracting investment and fostering innovation.

India has accelerated its military modernization in defense, focusing on advanced missile systems, nuclear capabilities, and an expanded naval presence. Meanwhile, it also asserts its leadership in emerging fields such as space exploration, renewable energy, and quantum technology. The Digital India initiative has propelled the country into a leading role in global digitalization, while a booming start-up ecosystem is fueling its innovation-driven economy.

Demographics remain India’s most significant asset. By 2030, it is expected to have the world’s largest working-age population, providing a critical boost to economic growth and innovation. However, systemic challenges remain. Despite its advancements, India still struggles to project power beyond its immediate region, particularly east of the Malacca Strait. Infrastructure disparities, income inequality, and political and religious tensions continue to pose hurdles to sustained growth and stability.

As China grapples with economic stagnation and demographic decline, India’s continued ascent presents an alternative center of power. Long burdened with economic headwinds, Japan finds itself increasingly overshadowed by India’s dynamism. While the U.S. remains dominant, shifting global alliances and economic recalibrations have opened space for new power players—with India at the forefront.

India’s role as a strategic balancer is particularly evident in its relations with Russia. While Beijing’s “no-limits” partnership with Moscow is often touted, historical distrust lingers. In contrast, India has consistently supported Russia and is viewed as a more reliable long-term partner. India’s geopolitical and economic backing could prove pivotal as Russia seeks to strengthen its Arctic ambitions and counter Western sanctions.

India’s strategic calculus also hinges on its fraught relationship with China. Border tensions in the Himalayas have escalated in recent years, and India has suffered casualties along its disputed frontier. Additionally, Beijing’s “String of Pearls” strategy—a network of Chinese military and commercial facilities across the Indian Ocean—threatens to encircle India from multiple fronts, including the Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea, and beyond.

In response, India has bolstered its “Necklace of Diamonds” counter-strategy, enhanced regional partnerships, and consolidated its Act East policy. As Chinese naval activity intensifies in Southeast Asia, India’s increasing presence in regional security frameworks will play a crucial role in maintaining balance.

India’s rise carries significant implications for regional and global stability. Its economic and military expansion has a cascading effect, fostering greater trade, investment, and security cooperation. More importantly, India’s commitment to upholding a rules-based international order strengthens global governance structures when they face mounting challenges.

As the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, India’s emergence as a formidable power is no longer a matter of speculation but a reality. While obstacles remain, its demographic strength, economic momentum, and strategic positioning make it a crucial player in shaping the future world order.