South Korea faces deepening political turmoil, heightened North Korean threats, and shifting defense strategies amid challenges to its democratic stability and regional security alliances.

On December 27, South Korea’s parliament impeached President Han Duck-soo, paving the way for Choi Sang-mok to assume the presidency. This marks the third presidential change in less than a month, deepening political turmoil in Asia’s fourth-largest economy and raising economic and political uncertainties in the region.

The opposition Democratic Party (DP), which controls the parliament, accused Han Duck-soo of being another puppet of Yoon Suk Yeol. It cited his failure to appoint three justices aligned with DP interests to the constitutional court. Suk Yeol’s removal now hinges on at least six constitutional court judges upholding his impeachment. This new turmoil resurrects historical echoes from South Korea’s colorful and often turbulent past.

Decades ago, authoritarian leaders in South Korea seized power through force, but the nation has since evolved into a stable, albeit occasionally tumultuous, democracy. Since embracing democratic governance in 1987, South Korea has undergone a profound social transformation shaped by capitalism and democratic ideals. For many citizens, the painful memories of martial law and past abuses underscore a collective resolve to prevent a return to authoritarian rule.

Yoon Suk Yeol defended his martial law declaration as a legal measure against “anti-state forces.” Still, his unpopularity was already mounting due to a faltering economy, doubts about his leadership, and controversies such as his wife’s Dior bag scandal. Winning back public trust now seems an uphill battle, primarily as Gallup Korea reports his approval rating has plunged to 16%, with 75% of respondents disapproving of his performance.

Suk Yeol narrowly won the presidency in March 2022 as a hardline conservative, a divisive victory that set the stage for his contentious leadership. He appealed to disenfranchised young men critical of the previous administration’s gender equality policies, which they claimed unfairly favored women. Since taking office, Suk Yeol’s approval ratings have steadily declined, with voters citing poor communication, economic struggles, and scandals involving the first lady as key grievances. His tenure has been marked by ongoing clashes with an opposition-controlled parliament that has repeatedly blocked his agenda.

Recently, Suk Yeol had to accept a reduced budget, with the opposition cutting $4.4 billion from the proposed $463 billion plan. The Democratic Party also voted to impeach top prosecutors, including the head of the audit agency, accusing them of failing to investigate the first lady. In justifying his martial law declaration, Suk Yeol cited escalating North Korean threats and criticized the opposition for being too lenient toward Pyongyang.

Under Suk Yeol’s leadership, relations with North Korea have further deteriorated. Pyongyang has fired ballistic missiles, sent rubbish-filled balloons across the border, blared loud noises at border villages, and even deployed troops to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Suk Yeol has used these threats to accuse the opposition of sympathizing with North Korea and undermining the government with “anti-state activities.” However, his decision to impose martial law has backfired, fueling public anger, deepening distrust, and plunging the ruling People Power Party into further disarray.

This political and social upheaval creates a lose-lose situation for South Korea, fragmenting its political system and increasing public frustration. Pyongyang has seized on this opportunity to bolster its propaganda, portraying South Korea’s capitalist democracy as chaotic and dysfunctional while gaining leverage in its psychological battle.

Nonetheless, not all developments favor Pyongyang. A recent poll indicates growing optimism and openness among South Koreans, with increasing support for the country’s development of nuclear weapons as a deterrent. This shift reflects skepticism about the reliability of future Western support and a desire for greater self-reliance in defense.

South Koreans are exploring new strategies for national security, moving beyond traditional reliance on external allies. However, how this shift, coupled with ongoing political turmoil, will influence policymaking in Washington and Tokyo and the future of the Camp David Pact among the three powers remains uncertain. The incoming Trump administration and uncertainties about its pledge of support further fuel this wave of independent defense initiatives in Seoul.

South Korea now faces one of the most significant security challenges in decades. The renewed North Korean threat has prompted a reevaluation of defense and security strategies, emphasizing “friend-shoring” beyond traditional reliance on the U.S. and Japan as primary security partners. Despite existing security mechanisms like the Camp David Pact and improved defense ties with Japan, Seoul remains wary, particularly given growing doubts about America’s commitment and Pyongyang’s persistent provocations.

Seoul is strengthening its deterrence capabilities beyond East Asia to address these challenges. It is considering offering more military support for Ukraine and views Southeast Asia as crucial for three reasons: securing vital economic and trade ties, ensuring access to natural resources, and maintaining food, energy, and supply chain security during conflict. The region is also emerging as an important market for South Korea’s military and defense exports, reflecting rising demand for deterrence capabilities amid growing instability.

Moreover, Seoul sees Southeast Asia as a potential ally in countering Pyongyang while serving as a distraction for China in the South China Sea. This approach could help mitigate the impact of future confrontations with China or tensions involving the U.S. and Taiwan.

Amid ongoing political turmoil, securing trust and support from neighboring powers, particularly Japan, and forging new partnerships in Southeast Asia and beyond will be crucial. The Trump administration’s decision-making could significantly reshape power dynamics in East Asia. Rather than focusing on transactional approaches that risk empowering Pyongyang and Beijing, Trump could serve as a game-changer by encouraging traditional allies to invest more in their defense while reducing Washington’s burden without escalating tensions into full-scale nuclear threats.

Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, the largest U.S. overseas military base, remains a potent symbol of Washington’s solid presence and deterrence. While strategic ambiguity persists, there is a clearer sense of direction and a controlled containment approach to address potential threats. South Korea’s political turmoil will eventually subside. Still, the resilience of its people and the nation’s ongoing security and stability will remain a cornerstone for the region.