While all appearances suggest Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-Un are besties, things aren’t as rosy as they would like us to believe.

On June 12, in a message marking Russia Day, North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un referred to the relationship between Pyongyang and Moscow as a “far-reaching strategic partnership.”

This carefully chosen phrase signifies more than just diplomatic niceties; it underscores a burgeoning alliance between two nations that have long been outliers on the global stage. Kim’s message, followed closely by President Vladimir Putin’s first official visit to North Korea in 24 years, marks a pivotal moment in Northeast Asian geopolitics.

The highlight of Putin’s visit was the signing of the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, which outlines new areas of cooperation between Russia and North Korea. This treaty is not just a symbolic gesture; it marks a substantial shift in the dynamics of international relations in the region, particularly as Putin openly expressed gratitude to North Korea for supplying weapons to Russia in its ongoing war with Ukraine. The deepening ties between these two pariah states are now formalized in this treaty, which Putin described as a “breakthrough document” that aims to elevate bilateral relations to “a new qualitative level.”

However, the longevity and depth of this newfound closeness are open to debate. Some analysts argue that the alliance might be short-lived, driven primarily by the difficulties of the Ukraine war. Once the dust settles, Russia may no longer value North Korea as highly as it does now. Kim Jong-Un’s diplomatic strategy also raises questions—he has a history of oscillating between aligning with China and Russia, a tactic reminiscent of Cold War-era maneuvers. Moreover, previous attempts at Russo-North Korean cooperation have yielded little concrete results.

Nonetheless, the broader geopolitical shifts, particularly following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, suggest that this partnership may have longer-lasting implications. The global order has been profoundly disrupted, and it is unlikely that Russia will regain its former standing in the international community post-conflict. Meanwhile, North Korea appears to have abandoned its longstanding goal of denuclearization in favor of rebuilding ties with the United States. The shared interest in challenging the U.S.-led international order has drawn Pyongyang and Moscow closer than ever before.

However, the mutual defense clause in the new treaty remains largely symbolic. Neither nation faces an imminent threat that would necessitate invoking such a clause unless North Korea decides to interpret Russia’s military actions in Ukraine as defensive maneuvers against NATO and Ukrainian aggression—a narrative Moscow has been keen to promote.

In such a scenario, North Korea could theoretically send troops to assist Russia, akin to the “guest workers” Pyongyang has dispatched worldwide to earn hard currency. With Russia facing significant military losses in Ukraine and grappling with its demographic challenges, it could indeed benefit from North Korean labor. The military cooperation between the two countries is not just hypothetical; it has already manifested in the form of North Korean short-range rockets and artillery shells used by Russia in Ukraine. In return, Russia is expected to bolster North Korea’s nuclear program and provide much-needed economic assistance, particularly in the form of cheap oil.

This new treaty also refers to the 1961 Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance between North Korea and the Soviet Union, a pact that dissolved with the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991. Although a subsequent treaty in 2000 under Putin’s early rule omitted a mutual defense clause, the current agreement revives this element, signaling a return to a more robust military alliance. Russia’s recent veto at the UN Security Council against renewing sanctions oversight on North Korea further illustrates the growing alignment between the two nations.

Yet, this mutual defense pledge may be more of a “Putin trap” than a genuine commitment. Should Ukrainian forces push back against Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territories, Putin could claim that Russia is under attack and call on North Korea to fulfill its treaty obligations. North Korean troops, who could serve as a substitute for the Russian soldiers Putin has struggled to recruit, might then find themselves embroiled in the conflict.

Conversely, this arrangement could also be a “Kim trap.” Kim Jong-Un is acutely aware of the historical precedent set during the Vietnam War, when 320,000 South Korean soldiers supported U.S. military efforts, gaining valuable combat experience and securing significant U.S. financial aid, contributing to South Korea’s economic rise. Kim might be hoping for a similar outcome, but whether this gambit will pay off remains uncertain.