The escalating Middle East conflict has extended its reach to Sri Lanka, where Israeli tourists face rising security threats amid complex regional alliances and Iranian influence.

War may take military form, but it is always, at its core, a political struggle. This reality echoes Clausewitz’s famous axiom: “War is not merely a political act but a real political instrument, a continuation of political intercourse, a carrying out of the same by other means.” Today, the turmoil in the Middle East—catalyzed by the brutal Hamas attack on Israel on October 7—has erupted into a regional crisis. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) are leveraging their advanced military capabilities, delivering relentless blows to their adversaries.

Yet, the intensifying military conflict reveals vulnerabilities among Israel’s enemies, from Hamas and Hezbollah to the Iranian regime, who are confronting Israel’s sophisticated defense technologies in humiliating defeats, from the targeting of high-profile leaders like Ismail Haniyeh to Yahya Sinwar.

This advantage, however, has come with a shadowed cost: a surge in Iran’s proxy strategy to target Israeli and Israeli assets globally. This approach, long a staple of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), is evolving to manipulate Muslim communities far beyond the Middle East, inciting resentment and acts of violence against Jews. The recent security alert issued in Arugam Bay, a renowned surfing hub in Sri Lanka, illustrates how this transnational conflict has extended beyond the Middle East, reverberating to the Indian Ocean.

Sri Lanka has become a popular destination for Israeli tourists, drawn to its sandy beaches and peaceful landscapes—a respite from the turbulent Middle East. In 2022, around 19,517 of Sri Lanka’s 1.5 million tourists were Israeli. For many Israelis, especially IDF soldiers seeking an escape from daily security threats, the island’s serene beauty offers much-needed solace. Yet, despite these exchanges, Sri Lanka’s relationship with Israel remains complicated and historically inconsistent.

This inconsistency traces back to the Cold War era, when Prime Minister Sirimavo Bandaranaike cut ties with Israel, only to have her successor, J.R. Jayewardene, reverse course. His defense minister, Lalith Athulathmudali, even lectured at Hebrew University in Jerusalem and actively sought Israeli support against Tamil rebels. Still, Colombo’s diplomatic tilt toward Israel has always been precarious, influenced by Sri Lanka’s economic ties to Arab states and the Middle East, where a substantial number of Sri Lankan workers are employed.

Since the October 7 Hamas attack, Sri Lankan public opinion on Israel has split sharply. While some Sinhalese nationalist groups, especially among the Buddhist majority, have voiced pro-Israeli sentiments rooted in support for Israel’s right to self-defense, others take a more ambiguous stance. This pro-Israeli outlook is partly practical; Israeli employers have increasingly filled labor shortages with Sri Lankan workers, creating a bridge between the two countries despite Sri Lankan diplomats’ pro-Palestinian positions at the United Nations.

Meanwhile, animosity toward Israel within segments of Sri Lanka’s Muslim community is on the rise, spurred by the recent military actions in Gaza. Anti-Israeli protests in Colombo have escalated dramatically, often involving young Muslim demonstrators chanting anti-Zionist slogans. Several large-scale rallies occurred this year along the country’s eastern coast, culminating in Nakba Day in May when local Muslims marched in solidarity with Palestine. Interestingly, these protests did not gain traction among the Sinhalese majority. Instead, some ultra-nationalist Sinhalese Buddhist organizations—led by monks—openly supported Israel’s military operations in Gaza.

In this convoluted landscape, the recent security alert in Arugam Bay raises legitimate concerns. Sri Lanka’s experience with terrorism—marked by the tragic Easter bombings in 2019—still lingers in the public memory, a cautionary reminder of the dangers of overlooking credible intelligence. Warnings from Mossad and Israel’s National Security Council about potential terrorist activity targeting Israelis in Sri Lanka resonate against this backdrop. Authorities suspect that groups similar to those responsible for the attempted assassination of Israeli tourists in Istanbul in 2022 may be operating in Sri Lanka.

This growing tension has not gone unnoticed by Iran. The Iranian Embassy in Colombo has provided enthusiastic backing for anti-Israeli demonstrations despite Sri Lanka’s relatively tiny Shia population. Iran’s interest in the island has grown since former President Ebrahim Raisi’s visit in May.

According to Israeli intelligence expert Ronen Solomon, Malaysia has traditionally served as a base for Iran’s covert operations in Asia. Still, Sri Lanka may evolve into another theater for Iran’s influence. Iran’s alliances with the larger Shia communities in North India further amplify this concern, as pro-Iranian groups there could pose a security threat. Iran’s sponsorship of Sri Lanka’s growing Shia community could mirror the spread of Wahhabism financed by Saudi Arabia in the 1970s, potentially creating a local support base for Iran’s objectives.

Ultimately, the situation in Arugam Bay is more than a fleeting scare—it underscores Sri Lanka’s precarious position within a volatile regional security environment. It suggests that Israeli interests in the region are increasingly at risk.