NATO is revitalizing its role to counter growing threats from Russia and China while expanding its strategic focus to include the Indo-Pacific region.

The 75th anniversary of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has reignited discussions on the alliance’s relevance and future direction, particularly in terms of its geographical scope and ideological foundations. As the world’s oldest and largest military alliance, NATO continues to offer extensive security assurances and deterrence, which have prompted traditionally neutral countries like Sweden and Finland to seek membership. This move signifies a significant shift in national priorities, emphasizing the paramount importance of security over longstanding neutrality.

At the recent summit in Washington, the Biden administration sought to reinvigorate NATO’s strength and purpose. Key announcements included plans to deploy longer-range missiles in Germany by 2026, marking the most significant U.S. military presence in Europe since the Cold War. NATO, often criticized for internal funding imbalances and used as a scapegoat by Moscow and Beijing, found a new resolve to counter these narratives, particularly in light of the ongoing Ukraine crisis.

This renewed vigor within NATO sends a clear signal to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky secured assurances of continued military aid, with commitments totaling at least $43.28 billion over the next year. This support is crucial for bolstering Ukraine’s defenses against any potential new Russian offensives.

The China Conundrum

NATO’s strategic focus has also shifted towards China, which it accuses of being a key enabler of Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. The alliance has identified China as a systemic challenge to Euro-Atlantic security, with all NATO members pledging to expand their industrial bases and develop plans for domestic defense production. This collective stance sends a strong message: NATO is revitalized and perceives Beijing and Moscow as primary global threats.

President Biden emphasized during the summit that NATO must not fall behind, asserting that every inch of its territory would be defended collectively. This stance comes amid concerns about former President Trump’s controversial approach to NATO, which previously unsettled many alliance members. With Biden exiting the political stage and Trump possibly returning to power, NATO members are preparing for a future where U.S. support may be less certain, necessitating greater self-reliance in defense against both Russian and Chinese threats.

NATO has accused China of supporting Russia’s actions in Ukraine and posing a long-term threat to European security. According to NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, Putin, increasingly aligned with other authoritarian regimes like China, aims to see the U.S. falter and NATO weaken. In response, NATO has called on China to cease all support for Russia’s defense industry. Beijing, however, has rebuffed these accusations, condemning NATO and the West for maintaining a Cold War mentality.

The summit’s final communiqué highlighted concerns over China’s involvement in malicious cyber activities and the rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal. NATO members are particularly worried about China’s joint military exercises with Russia, including activities in the South China Sea and near the Alaskan border, indicating a broader strategic partnership.

Indo-Pacific: The Emerging Frontline

The Indo-Pacific region is becoming increasingly crucial for NATO and its allies, representing both a strategic vulnerability and opportunity. With approximately 40% of Europe’s trade passing through the South China Sea, the region’s stability is vital for economic and security reasons. Countries like Japan, South Korea, and Australia, collectively known as the “Indo-Pacific 4 (IP4),” have been engaging more closely with NATO, attending summits since 2022.

These nations face unique threats: Japan contends with challenges from a Moscow-Beijing-Pyongyang axis, while South Korea navigates increased Russian engagement with North Korea. The idea of NATO expanding its presence in the Indo-Pacific has gained traction, although it has sparked debate within the alliance about potentially overstretching resources and provoking China.

While NATO has no formal mandate in the Indo-Pacific, its members maintain various security arrangements in the region. The prospect of NATO’s formal involvement, or the creation of an “Asian NATO,” raises questions about how such a structure would interact with existing frameworks like AUKUS, the Quad, and other bilateral agreements.

For now, regional powers seem content with NATO’s role in preserving a rules-based order and freedom of navigation, without committing to full-scale military engagements. However, the future of NATO’s involvement in the Indo-Pacific remains uncertain, particularly given the potential for shifting U.S. priorities.

Nuclear Sharing in NATO

Nuclear deterrence remains a central element of NATO’s strategy. As Stoltenberg has emphasized, NATO will continue to rely on nuclear weapons as long as they exist. The alliance’s nuclear posture is primarily based on U.S. nuclear weapons deployed in Europe, under U.S. control but supported by European allies.

With growing concerns that the U.S. might hesitate to use nuclear weapons in Europe due to the risk of escalation with Russia, European NATO members face a precarious situation. They must balance the need for nuclear deterrence with the reality of their current capabilities, which are not yet sufficient to handle such responsibilities independently.

As the U.S. shifts more focus towards the Indo-Pacific, European NATO members will need to enhance their own security measures. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has highlighted the interconnected nature of global security, arguing that challenges in Asia are as relevant to Europe as those in Europe are to Asia. This perspective underscores the need for a more integrated global approach to security, even as individual nations grapple with their specific challenges.

The recent NATO summit provided a platform for the U.S. and its allies to address the growing influence of China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. Beijing, wary of what it sees as U.S. efforts to create an “Asian NATO,” views these developments as a threat to its regional ambitions. As President Biden highlighted, America’s strength lies in its ability to unite countries, a capacity increasingly tested by the anti-Western momentum led by Moscow and Beijing.

Despite these challenges, the West’s military power remains unmatched, at least for now. The question remains: how long can this dominance last in the face of growing opposition from anti-Western forces?