Though small, the Indian-American diaspora is increasingly influential in U.S. elections, with both major parties vying for their support ahead of November.

The 2020 census counted 4.4 million people of Indian origin living in the U.S. Although this represents less than one percent of the overall population and an even smaller fraction of registered voters, the Indian-American diaspora wields an outsized political influence. Their importance in U.S. elections surpasses what their numbers suggest, particularly in key battleground states.

The ascent of the Indian diaspora coincided with the tech boom of the 2000s, starting with an influx of engineers into Silicon Valley. Skilled, English-speaking, and hard-working, this group has evolved into one of the country’s most educated and economically robust demographics. Although still relatively small compared to African-American and Latino communities, Indian-Americans, with their wealth, education, and organizational acumen, are increasingly poised to play a more pivotal role in future elections. This is especially true in swing states like Texas, Georgia, Florida, Arizona, Virginia, and Pennsylvania—where narrow margins can decide outcomes—and as significant political donors.

The Democratic National Convention in Chicago made clear the rising political clout of Indian-Americans, with Vice President Kamala Harris prominently featuring in discussions of identity politics. Yet, a central question persists: Which party better serves the interests of Indian-Americans and India?

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during his address to the U.S. Congress in June 2023, expressed pride in Harris’ Indian heritage. He also humorously acknowledged the so-called “samosa caucus” of Indian-American lawmakers in Congress. Even if Harris were to lose the upcoming election, the community would still have a symbolic victory—J.D. Vance, Trump’s running mate, is married to Usha Vance, a woman of Indian origin and a self-described Hindu and vegetarian.

While the “Harris factor” played a role in mobilizing Indian-American voters in 2020, it is likely to have an even more significant impact in 2024. Despite former President Trump’s cordial relations with Modi, Harris appears to be the more apparent favorite for maintaining a White House favorable to India’s interests.

Trump’s rhetoric—anti-trade, populism with racist undertones, anti-globalization, and often anti-immigrant—resonates less with an immigrant community that has thrived under the principles of multiculturalism. Indian diplomacy would also likely benefit from the continued stability of a Biden-Harris administration, as opposed to the unpredictability of a second Trump term.

Both parties are aggressively courting the Indian diaspora, integrating India-friendly policies into their platforms. The Republican National Committee (RNC) and the Democratic National Committee (DNC) have tailored specific messaging to this group. The Foundation for India and Indian Diaspora Studies (FIIDS), a nonprofit, has launched the “Indo-American Vote Matters” campaign to increase political participation among Indian Americans.

Despite these efforts, the diaspora has preferred the Democratic Party, with scant signs of defection toward Trump or the Republicans. While Trump cultivated a relationship with Modi, this connection had little sway over the Indian-American vote, which overwhelmingly supported the Democrats in 2020. Some Republicans have attributed this to a preference for Democratic names rather than policies. The reality, however, is that many Indian-Americans struggle to identify with the Republican Party, often viewed as dominated by far-right Christian nationalists and less tolerant of ethnic and religious minorities.

A 2020 survey by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace revealed significant political polarization within the Indian-American community, mirroring broader U.S. trends in the post-Trump era. American-born Indian-Americans tend to lean more center-left than their foreign-born, naturalized counterparts. The survey also highlighted that while American-born citizens are more vocal in their political engagement, naturalized citizens exhibit lower voter turnout and quieter forms of participation. Critical issues for the diaspora include immigration policies, family reunification, and H1-B visa reforms.

While the Indian-American community is ideologically diverse, 74 percent of them voted for Joe Biden in 2020, making their impact in 2024 an essential factor to watch. As the diaspora grows in political importance, understanding their role in U.S. elections becomes increasingly relevant.

Indian-Americans tend to vote on “kitchen table” issues—economy and healthcare—rather than on U.S.-India relations, but their votes will still influence foreign policy. India, for its part, is closely watching the outcome of the 2024 U.S. election, knowing it will either face Trump’s protectionism or Harris’ continuity of Biden-era cooperation.

The U.S. sees India as a crucial strategic partner in the Asia-Pacific, helping counter China’s rising influence. Whether it’s a Harris or Trump presidency, the Indian diaspora stands at a critical juncture, helping to shape U.S.-India relations. As their electoral power grows, so too will the depth of this bilateral partnership.