The Trump administration is shifting U.S. foreign policy away from Europe and Ukraine to focus on countering China’s rising global influence.

For three years, the war in Ukraine has gripped global headlines. It is a relentless conflict fueled by Russian aggression. The fighting continues unabated, with Moscow’s forces making incremental territorial gains. Meanwhile, Ukraine remains dependent on Western aid—chiefly from the United States, which, as of December 31, 2024, had contributed $114.2 billion. Europe, collectively, had provided $144 billion.

However, the nature of U.S. support is more crucial than the sheer amount of aid. American air defense systems have been indispensable in shielding Ukrainian cities from Russian missile barrages, proving that U.S. military assistance is not just financial but strategic. Yet, this crucial lifeline may now be in jeopardy.

The dramatic February 28 meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump has thrown Ukraine’s future into turmoil. What was ostensibly a discussion about ending the war turned out to be, critics argue, a political maneuver by Trump to justify pulling U.S. support. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer convened European leaders to strategize an alternative path. Their goal? To forge a peace deal with Russia, including a U.S. security guarantee in the form of continued air defense support. The UK and France have signaled a willingness to deploy peacekeeping forces without American backing.

The Trump administration, however, sees things differently. Its priority isn’t a long-term military commitment but a transactional solution—one centered on Ukraine’s vast reserves of rare earth minerals. The administration has floated the idea that granting the U.S. extensive stakes in these critical resources could substitute for ongoing military support.

But Starmer dismissed this notion on March 2, insisting that economic deals alone will not be enough to secure Ukraine’s future. Meanwhile, the White House has issued a stark warning to Zelensky: time is running out.

The fundamental question remains—can Europe step in to fill the void left by Washington? The answer, for now, appears to be no. The financial burden of sustaining Ukraine’s war effort is daunting. European economies are struggling with sluggish growth, high debt, and the added strain of new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. As some leaders propose, raising military spending to 3 percent of GDP would require painful social spending cuts—an unpalatable prospect for many European governments. Another option under consideration is loosening fiscal rules to allow for greater defense expenditure, but Europe’s economic stagnation and declining competitiveness make such a move politically fraught.

Beyond economics, the continent faces a leadership deficit. Convincing European citizens to make the necessary sacrifices for Ukraine’s security is proving increasingly difficult. Realpolitik suggests that a broader recalibration of American foreign policy is underway. For too long, Washington has fixated on Russia, NATO, and Europe while the more pressing geopolitical challenge looms elsewhere: China.

Whether openly stated or not, the Trump administration’s posture suggests an inevitable shift that sees NATO’s role diminished, even if the alliance formally persists. Europe, long accustomed to U.S. military protection, is being told to stand independently.

Trump’s message is clear: Europe must take responsibility for its security, including Ukraine’s. The U.S., in turn, is pivoting to what it sees as the greater threat—China. Unlike Russia, which remains a declining power, China is ascendant. From artificial intelligence to advanced manufacturing, China is rapidly surpassing the U.S. in critical technological sectors, demanding an aggressive response. More than any battlefield in Ukraine, this is where Washington’s future battles will be fought.

The Trump administration’s new trade tariffs are just one piece of this emerging strategy. Washington is awakening to the realization that the U.S. is no longer the world’s unchallenged superpower. China is not merely rising—it is actively positioning itself to replace the American-led global order.

So, U.S. foreign policy is being reset. Whether Washington can successfully meet this challenge remains an open question.