Anyone concerned about Taiwan’s future should be concerned about a second Trump presidency.

As the United States gears up for its November presidential election, former President Donald Trump is set to square off against Vice President Kamala Harris, following President Joe Biden’s decision not to run for reelection. Based on current polling, Harris leads Trump by a slim lead. However, elections are unpredictable, and Trump, despite being 78 years of age, twice impeached, and now a convicted felon, could still win in November, a scenario that could carry significant implications for U.S. foreign policy, particularly concerning Taiwan.

During his tumultuous first term, Trump adopted a hardline stance on China, criticizing its actions regarding North Korea and the South China Sea, and accusing Beijing of failing to uphold international order. Trump’s views on China also influenced his approach to the One China policy, which recognizes the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal government of China. In a 2016 interview with Fox News, Trump controversially suggested that the One China policy was negotiable. His administration also passed the Taiwan Travel Act, which allowed Taiwanese officials to visit the U.S. under “respectful conditions,” and approved over $18 billion in military aid to Taiwan, a sharp increase from previous administrations.

However, Trump’s stance on Taiwan in 2024 appears to differ. In a recent interview with Bloomberg Businessweek, Trump suggested that Taiwan should bear the cost of its defense, particularly in light of the advantages Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) operations in Arizona bring to the U.S. economy. According to reports, TSMC’s revenue from January to April is projected to reach $25 billion, a 26.2% increase. Trump’s rhetoric, rooted in his “America First” fear-mongering, suggests a focus on prioritizing U.S. interests over those of other nations, including Taiwan.

This shift in approach could have several ramifications for U.S.-Taiwan relations.

Firstly, the future of U.S.-Taiwan ties could become more uncertain. Trump’s willingness to negotiate the One China policy complicates the U.S.’s stance on Taiwan, raising doubts about America’s commitment to maintaining peace in the region. Senior defense analysts, like Derek Grossman, have noted that since Biden’s election in 2020, the U.S. has attempted to clarify its commitment to Taiwan, doubling down on policies that support Taiwan’s defense. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has emphasized that Biden’s position on Taiwan remains steady, clear, and committed to the status quo.

Secondly, Trump’s potential impact on Taiwan could lead to a more biased and unpredictable U.S. policy toward China. Under Trump’s leadership, the U.S. deviated from its traditional cautious approach to Taiwan and China, pursuing economic gains with China while simultaneously bolstering support for Taiwan. This dual strategy could face new challenges under a second Trump administration, with potential consequences for the delicate balance in U.S.-China-Taiwan relations.

Finally, Trump’s statements raise concerns about the U.S.’s engagement with Taiwan, particularly regarding the Taiwan Relations Act. Beijing, under President Xi Jinping, has made it clear that it intends to reclaim Taiwan, by force if necessary. Since 2020, China has ramped up military activities around Taiwan, including airspace incursions and large-scale drills, signaling its readiness to act against what it sees as separatist movements in Taiwan. The prospect of Trump allowing China to take military action against Taiwan without U.S. intervention could embolden Beijing and escalate tensions in East Asia.

As the U.S. heads toward its presidential election, the potential implications of a Trump victory are profound and concerning, particularly for Taiwan. The coming months will be critical in shaping the future of U.S. foreign policy and the stability of the Asia-Pacific region.