The seemingly endless American election season is finally nearing its end. For those across the Atlantic, where the marathon media coverage has permeated daily life, it’s a moment both anticipated and dreaded.

In Europe, many can be forgiven for sighing relief at the imminent end of a campaign that feels longer with each cycle. Yet, the stakes of an American election stretch far beyond U.S. borders, reverberating across Europe, the Middle East, Ukraine, and Taiwan—regions where lives and livelihoods may hinge on the outcome. The campaign trail’s drama, now globally dissected, has captured leaders’ attention across these continents, where Washington’s choices can feel alarmingly proximate.

A World in Waiting

European political leaders are watching with heightened interest, bracing for the potential ramifications of the U.S. election. America today feels more polarized than ever, with two starkly contrasting candidates vying for the White House. Yet the stakes aren’t merely philosophical; a world mired in crises yearns for clarity and consistency from what many have traditionally seen as the leader of the free world.

A second term for former President Donald Trump, laden with vows of retribution, would be met with universal trepidation across Europe. And yet, while offering a reprieve for allies, Vice President Kamala Harris remains a largely unknown figure to the European public.

One issue notably underplayed amid the campaign’s endless twists is climate change—a critical issue of particular urgency for Europe, which recently witnessed Spain’s worst floods in generations. Sergey Lagodinsky, a German lawyer, politician, and Member of the European Parliament with the Alliance 90/The Greens, expressed deep unease at the thought of Trump’s return to the Oval Office.

“It’s little surprise that we are worried. First and foremost — it’s almost certain that we will expect a rollback in climate policy, both in the U.S. and on the global stage,” he explained, predicting that a Trump victory would embolden authoritarians in Europe, harm global democracy, and destabilize trade relations. “It will be a blow to democracy worldwide. Trade relations could also suffer as more American protectionism hits our European economies.”

Daniel Freund, another Greens MEP following the U.S. election in Pennsylvania and Washington this week, echoes this sentiment, pointing out the sheer divisiveness of the U.S. campaign. For both Republicans and Democrats, the climate and Europe’s concerns are barely on the radar, Freund observed. He emphasized the urgency of Europe standing on its own regarding security, particularly in supporting Ukraine and upholding democratic values.

“It’s quite clear that aside from both Europe and the climate crisis, the greatest threat facing humanity, play no role in this campaign for both Republicans and Democrats. The impact of these elections on European politics, democracy, and the rule of law will be huge. Whatever happens on Tuesday, it’s quite clear that the message for Europe is that we need to be able to stand on our own two feet regarding our security, support for Ukraine, and as champions of democracy in the world,” Freund told me.

Climate Activists Sound the Alarm

Environmentalists share similar concerns. Chiara Martinelli, Director of Climate Action Network Europe, urges the EU to redouble its climate efforts, even under a second Trump presidency.

“The EU must increase its efforts to decarbonize, even if Trump gets elected. Increased efforts that will not leave any doubt at the international negotiations table that the Paris Agreement implementation is the only way forward to address the global climate emergency. The good thing is that both the political guidelines by the Commission President for her new term and recent ministerial decisions confirm the commitment to advance the climate policy implementation,” Martinelli told me.

“Ongoing discussions on a clean industrial deal must add a component in steering and supporting future-proof industries which are competitive in a zero-emission and climate resilience future. Moreover, forecasting the potential geopolitical turmoil within another Trump presidential term, there should be a more concerted effort by the EU to wean off fossil fuel imports and look to boost its energy security through reducing energy demand and accelerating the rollout of renewable energy,” Martinelli stated.

Martinelli also advocates for a clean industrial strategy, focusing on sustainable industries resilient to a volatile geopolitical environment. She advised that if Trump returns to office, Europe should prioritize reducing fossil fuel dependence and accelerate renewable energy investments.

Within Europe’s Green Party, co-chairs Mélanie Vogel and Thomas Waitz voiced hope for a Harris presidency to address the climate crisis and champion Middle East peace. This critical juncture, they argued, demands a reliable partner in Washington willing to pursue equitable and sustainable policies globally.

They told me, “In this crucial moment, Europe needs Kamala Harris as President of the United States to be a reliable partner, take the urgent, decisive action needed on the climate crisis, and bring about a just and sustainable peace in the Middle East.”

Transatlantic Relations on the Brink

David McAllister, Chairman of the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee, described the election’s significance for Europe as monumental. Amidst a backdrop of escalating global conflicts, he argued, the U.S. remains Europe’s closest ally. McAllister insisted that our transatlantic relationship must remain a cornerstone of European foreign policy, adding that Europe should fortify its NATO role and enhance its defense capabilities.

Yet he fears a second Trump term would severely strain these bonds, especially concerning NATO, Ukraine, and trade relations. Trump’s guiding principle has always been unpredictability, he noted. McAllister added that there’s little to suggest he would alter course in a second term. “As never before since the end of the Cold War, authoritarian regimes are prepared to use military force to weaken the rules-based international order.”

For McAllister, the cooperative relationship built with the Biden administration—especially in response to Russia’s aggression and coordinated support for Ukraine—serves as a stark contrast to the instability anticipated under Trump. “In this geopolitically tense situation, the U.S. is and will remain our closest ally and partner,” he reflected, hopeful that a Harris administration would continue this course. But Europe, he warns, must be ready for any outcome and should engage with both major U.S. parties to preserve stable transatlantic relations.

“During his time in office, Mr. Trump was uninterested in strengthening the transatlantic partnership. On the contrary, these were four challenging years. We have learned that Trump’s guiding foreign policy principle is unpredictability.” He continues, “There are no signs that he intends to change course during a possible second term – this would likely influence his future administration’s Ukraine policy. The European Union has reaffirmed its stance that no initiative to build peace in Ukraine can be taken without the participation of the Ukrainian government. Peace on Putin’s terms that is implemented over the heads of the people of Ukraine is not peace at all.”

McAllister says that cooperation with President Biden’s administration has been “solid, reliable and cooperative” since 2021, adding, “Our response to the Russian war of aggression and our well-coordinated support for Ukraine have demonstrated this. Kamala Harris wants to continue this course.”

He says Europe “must be well prepared for both conceivable election outcomes. In Congress, we should ensure a stable future for our transatlantic relations with the Democrats and the Republicans. Ultimately, the 170 million registered U.S. voters will decide who should govern the United States for the next four years. The decisive factor is who can most effectively mobilize voters in this final election phase until November 5.”

A Warning for Europe

Ireland’s Sean Kelly, a longtime MEP, highlighted the implications for global stability, cautioning that another Trump presidency would test international alliances.

Ireland relies on strong U.S.-EU relations for trade and growth. He explained that the Trump White House’s erratic policies don’t align with these interests. Amid Ukraine and the Middle East conflicts, Kelly questioned whether the world could endure another unpredictable American leader. He closed with a nod to elections on both sides of the Atlantic, expressing hope for a Harris victory in the U.S. and, domestically, the election of Simon Harris in Ireland.

“As Ireland relies on this essential partnership, we benefit from consistent, values-based relationships that promote trade, investment, and economic growth, and a second Trump Presidency is not in our interests. With wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the world does not need an erratic President in the White House who appears to favor autocratic regimes over liberal democracies. As Ireland also approaches a general election, I’m hopeful for a ‘Harris’ win on both sides of the Atlantic, with Kamala Harris in the U.S. and Simon Harris here at home,” Kelly said.

Veteran former MEP Edward McMillan-Scott, who once led the European Parliament’s Human Rights and Democracy Committee, described the upcoming election as “the most significant and potentially portentous election in recent world history.” He foresees profound impacts on European politics and beyond. “Institutions and think tanks across the U.S. are on edge, filled with anticipation or dread. This is a defining moment,” he remarked.

McMillan-Scott admired the U.S. National Endowment for Democracy, a Washington-based non-governmental organization, and its work in the Arab world. The Brit is a kinsman of T.E. Lawrence and worked with Liz Cheney, then a State Department official on the Middle East desk, and later a strong critic of Donald Trump. In Brussels, the visit by President Obama during his term in office was, for him, “one of the most poignant in the evolution of EU/U.S. relations.”

Europe’s Future at Stake

Former Labour minister Denis MacShane offers a sobering assessment: Trump represents a shift toward divisive populism, a trend already visible across Europe. He argues that Trump’s brand of nationalism has emboldened similar figures, from France’s Marine Le Pen to Hungary’s Viktor Orbán. This movement, he claims, aligns with Russia’s geopolitical ambitions.

MacShane explained that Trump’s foreign policy leans towards isolationism, adding that Trump’s associates, including Steve Bannon, have openly supported Europe’s far-right. Harris, meanwhile, is less familiar with Europe but remains rooted in democratic values, a counterbalance to Trump’s isolationist stance.

MacShane says, “The new sometimes racist, always anti-Muslim, anti-European right have cannibalized mainstream post-1945 centre-right or Christian democratic parties backed by a media owned and controlled by billionaires who reject many of the more social and liberal values and policies that were rooted into Europe’s political culture after 1950. Trump represents the European nationalist, exclusionary, right often anti-women and homophobic as in Italy under Meloni or Poland under Kaczynski.”

MacShane further adds that Trump is aligned with those, including the so-called Putinversteher in Berlin and Vienna, “who wanted Ukraine to surrender to Putin and accept the return of Russia as a semi-colonial power in the lands of the former USSR.”

“Trump has already sent his factotum Steve Bannon to promote the far-right in Italy and France after he became president in 2016. Trump also enclosed Boris Johnson’s support for Brexit in line with Putin’s geopolitical vision of Europe returning to a network of rival, frontier-closing national states rejecting the partnership, common policies, enforceable laws associated with the EU, the European Court of Justice or the European Human Rights Conventions and European Human Rights Court.”

He fears that Kamala Harris “does not know Europe” but says that her “political upbringing is rooted in Euro-Atlantic democracy and values.”

“Trump,” he adds, “is overtly contemptuous of European values and will seek to deal with EU nation states and the United Kingdom one by one, weakening the Euro-Atlantic community of nations at a time when new forces and power – China, India, Russia, the BRICS want a very different world in which might is right and Hindu, Russian, or Sino nationalism prevails.”

Former European Parliament President Pat Cox echoed the sentiment, calling this “the most consequential U.S. presidential election in more than a century, not just for the United States itself, but also for its allies and the global standing of democracy in an increasingly contested multilateral environment.” He highlighted the implications for America and democracy’s standing worldwide.

As Americans cast their votes, Europe waits with bated breath, keenly aware that the results will shape their future. The global stakes could scarcely be higher.