President Trump’s recent threat to take over the Gaza Strip has been met with widespread outrage, though proposed Israeli solutions do not differ drastically. As the volatile ceasefire deal takes shape in Gaza, the prospect of a lasting solution remains far off. While the deal frees Israeli hostages and halts fighting, Hamas remains the primary governing body in Gaza. Israel faces significant hurdles as it seeks to eliminate Hamas, yet the military campaign returned Hamas to a position of power. If Israel does not take meaningful steps to foster civil Palestinian control, it risks repeating the cycle of occupation and settlement that will leave Gaza in a similar position to the West Bank.

The current state of the West Bank remains intractable for a few prominent reasons. Israel will not cede the territory it controls in the West Bank but also does not seek greater Palestinian autonomy. The Palestinian Authority (PA) is unable to deliver economic needs, and a majority of West Bank Palestinians disapprove of President Mahmoud Abbas’s leadership. Militant groups such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), Lion’s Den, and Hamas pose a real threat due to their infrastructure throughout the West Bank, which enables violence against Israeli soldiers and civilians.

Israel plays whack-a-mole and frequently raids weapon stashes and terror infrastructure in hotbeds such as Jenin while neglecting a long-term solution to provide sovereignty and security for Israelis and Palestinians. A secure and self-governed Palestinian state can reduce reliance on terror groups for governing needs and lower animosity towards Israel in the long term. Finally, religious right-wing Israeli extremists seek to annex the entirety of the land without providing citizenship to the nearly 3 million Palestinians living there.

The situation in the West Bank is increasingly volatile, driven by the rapid expansion of Israeli settlements and economic stagnation. Settlements have pushed deeper into Palestinian territory, displacing Palestinian communities and entrenching settler populations. As far-right ministers assume control of the Civil Authority, settler violence against Palestinians has surged to all-time highs with little intervention from the Israeli Defense Forces.

Annexation would formalize this system, solidifying unequal conditions where Palestinians and Israeli settlers live under a different legal framework. This move risks triggering unrest and undermining hope for a peaceful resolution. The international community’s condemnation of annexation could also isolate Israel diplomatically, straining critical relationships with regional partners like Jordan and Egypt, whose cooperation is vital for regional stability. By entrenching Israeli control over the West Bank, annexation would exacerbate long-term instability and push the region further toward unmanageable conflict.

Critics of the ceasefire deal were quick to observe Hamas fighters in uniform maintaining civil control in Gaza and reason that the war must continue to reduce their power. Yet after 15 months of war and much of Gaza in ruins, there is little to suggest that prolonging the war will dislodge Hamas. Hamas worked with other Palestinian militias to stop gangs from looting humanitarian aid throughout the war, suggesting the lack of central authority.

An effort to retain “security control over Gaza” and prevent Palestinians from forming self-government would leave Israeli forces in Gaza responsible for civil order as an occupying military force. Israel’s refusal to consider day-after plans that include non-Hamas organizations like the PA explains Hamas’ quick return to power. Allowing full Hamas control or occupying Gaza itself are not feasible options for Israel, so they must consider alternatives. To truly eliminate Hamas’ influence in post-war Gaza, Israel must reach the later stages of the deal while fostering institutions to govern Gaza.

There is anxiety that Israel will not reach the later phases of the ceasefire deal and will begin to occupy Gaza again. While Trump has normalized these ideas by saying the quiet part out loud, similar ideas have been festering on the right for months. Israeli ministers in past months have openly advocated for the resettlement of Gaza, and a recently introduced coalition bill legalizes Israeli building in the strip. Housing Minister Yitzhak Goldknof said, “Establishing Jewish settlements here is also the answer to terrorism.”

This stance presents significant risks to Israel’s international reputation. Last October, ten Likud MKs attended a conference advocating for the resettlement of Gaza, underscoring the idea’s appeal beyond Netanyahu’s coalition’s most extreme factions. These MKs have attributed the October 7 attacks to the 2005 disengagement from Gaza settlements rather than to intelligence failures. Although Netanyahu has not backed a resettlement plan, his coalition’s hardliners could destabilize the government if he does not completely “destroy” Hamas—a sentiment amplified by recent comments from Donald Trump.

If Israel resumes settlement construction, it risks deepening military entanglements by asserting control over two territories where Palestinians lack governance. Post-war Gaza poses complex challenges, with repopulation by Israeli Jews potentially fueling accusations of promoting Jewish supremacy. This comes at a time when Israel must prioritize building partnerships with Palestinian and Arab neighbors. While Israel retains the right and responsibility to respond militarily if Hamas breaches agreements, long-term solutions to post-war governance are critical to avoid protracted occupation or indefinite control.

In all of Israel’s negotiations with its neighbors, concessions have been made to improve conditions for Palestinians in the West Bank. As part of the 1978 Camp David Accords, Israel agreed to eventually promote Palestinian autonomy in the West Bank in exchange for peace with Egypt. The 1993 Oslo Accords led to the establishment of the Palestinian Authority and the division of West Bank land under its control. Even the 2005 Gaza disengagement included the dismantling of Israeli settlements and military bases in parts of the West Bank. In 2020, the Abraham Accords suspended plans for West Bank annexation in return for normalized relations with the UAE, Morocco, Bahrain, and Sudan.

The West Bank has been central to all major peace agreements and remains a key obstacle to Israel’s full integration into the Middle East. Another prolonged military occupation of Gaza would likely worsen these challenges and hinder Israel’s efforts at regional normalization.

Israel is at its strongest strategic position since October 7. The decimation of Hamas and Hezbollah, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, and direct confrontations with Iran have weakened Tehran’s influence. Israel now has a rare opportunity to reshape the Middle East by undermining the Axis of Resistance and expanding ties with Gulf nations. Achieving this requires meaningful progress in the West Bank and a durable ceasefire in Gaza. Prioritizing resettlement in Gaza over regional integration and a potential two-state solution could be a costly strategic mistake.

Those who believe that Trump’s rhetoric will pressure Saudi Arabia into normalization underestimate the Saudis’ firm stance on establishing a Palestinian state. Following Trump’s comments about assuming control of Gaza, the Saudi government reiterated its demand for a Palestinian state as a prerequisite for normalized relations with Israel. An Israeli (or American) occupation of Gaza without efforts to strengthen Palestinian civil society would drain Israeli resources without delivering long-term security. If Israel seeks lasting peace and normalization with Saudi Arabia, it must focus on supporting non-Hamas Palestinian leaders to build a stable government. This includes unfreezing Palestinian Authority tax revenues to support the West Bank economy and advancing civil service reforms to strengthen political legitimacy. Without a strategy to empower non-Hamas governance, Israel risks deepening its entanglement in an untenable conflict.

Israel’s current approach to Gaza risks replicating the entrenched stalemate in the West Bank. Without a coherent long-term vision, Israel’s extended presence and reliance on military operations to suppress militancy will perpetuate instability. The ongoing situation in the West Bank already hinders Israel’s full integration into the region. Reoccupying and settling Gaza would only exacerbate these challenges, delaying diplomatic progress further. The absence of a clear mission, along with Israel’s refusal to fully withdraw from these areas, undermines efforts to establish sustainable governance.

As humanitarian conditions deteriorate and Palestinian factions vie for control, Israel must confront the reality that its existing policies are unsustainable. To prevent repeating the mistakes of the West Bank, Israel must prioritize a comprehensive plan for Gaza, focusing on long-term stability and justice for all stakeholders.