The resignation and self-imposed exile of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has ushered in a new chapter in Bangladesh’s history, with Muhammad Yunus now at the helm of an interim government. While the nation’s political aspirations echo the Arab Spring, so too do its potential pitfalls.

Sheikh Hasina, the world’s longest-serving female head of state, presided over an era of rapid economic growth. Under her leadership, Bangladesh’s garment industry flourished, GDP growth surged from approximately 4% to 7%, and poverty levels were significantly reduced, improving the lives of millions.

However, this progress was marred by a vast patronage network, underdeveloped public institutions, repressive crackdowns, and economic downturns exacerbated by COVID-19 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These challenges eroded decades of progress and dimmed hopes for a democratic future. On the morning of August 5th, protesters descended on Dhaka, and by evening, Hasina had departed.

Hasina’s swift ousting, despite her long-standing alliances with the West and her adept balancing of relations with India, China, and Russia, caught diplomats in Washington, London, and across Europe off guard. The mass protests were met with cautious acceptance, reminiscent of the Arab Spring. The United States, urging calm and restraint, called on all parties to avoid political violence and allow an interim government to guide a peaceful transition “with respect to democratic principles, rule of law, and the will of the Bangladeshi people.”

Following Hasina’s departure, the military, yielding to student demands, appointed Muhammad Yunus as the interim leader. The 84-year-old Nobel laureate economist, revered for his work with microcredit through Grameen Bank, has long been a beloved figure in Bangladesh. His appointment has sparked optimism that the nation might break free from its authoritarian past.

Yet, like the Arab Spring, Yunus’s primary challenge is maintaining peace while fostering an open political environment that allows for the formulation of a viable vision for the future. However, there are already troubling signs that the rule of law is being disregarded.

In the aftermath of Hasina’s resignation, dozens of Awami League members, former ministers, Supreme Court justices, journalists, and scholars have been detained, attacked, or killed as a wave of revenge sweeps the nation. Reports of assaults on ethnic and religious minorities, as well as attacks on places of worship, homes, and businesses, are particularly alarming. Businesses perceived to have ties to the Awami League are being threatened, with company boards dissolved and effectively brought under state control.

Even Shakib Al Hasan, Bangladesh’s cricket team captain and a national hero, was served a legal notice regarding the protest killings, despite being out of the country at the time. Now playing in test matches against Pakistan, Shakib has received strong support from his teammates in response to these accusations.

Compounding these issues, the political vacuum has created an opening for fringe fundamentalist groups like Hizb ut-Tahrir, long regarded as extremist by both Hasina’s government and the West, to assert their influence. The ongoing Rohingya crisis remains another significant challenge. Although Yunus has pledged support for the displaced population, economic and food security concerns persist for both the Rohingya and Bangladesh’s impoverished citizens, given the country’s heavy reliance on imported foodstuffs.

Failure to address these issues will be detrimental to Bangladesh’s economic goals, which hinge on reassuring investors and creditors that stability is within reach.

The recent unrest has already shaken Bangladesh’s industrial core. The garment industry, which boasts 3,000 factories and accounts for roughly 85% of the nation’s annual exports, has seen orders shift away from the country. This upheaval comes at a critical time, as Bangladesh grapples with a $4.7 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF loan requires Bangladesh to tighten its monetary policy, likely resulting in budget cuts and interest rate hikes, while the central bank struggles to manage foreign exchange issues that have undermined its import power, causing consumer prices to spike.

Bangladesh’s future remains uncertain. One scenario mirrors Egypt, where military impatience with elected leaders led to a full-blown coup. Another possibility is that Bangladesh could follow in the footsteps of Tunisia, where an elder academic—Kais Saied—shed his moderate persona and transformed into a traditional strongman, dashing the hopes that had been pinned on the Arab Spring.

In Bangladesh, much depends on the actions of the triumvirate: Professor Yunus, the army, and the students. Their ability to set aside grievances and pursue fair elections is crucial to the emergence of a democratically legitimate government. Without a shared commitment to this goal, the nation risks descending into autocracy, as the cycle of revenge and violence threatens to derail its democratic transition.