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The Politics of the Hezbollah-Israel Conflict: What Next?
The Hezbollah-Israel conflict has escalated with Israel’s recent invasion of Lebanon, leading to widespread violence, regional instability, and global calls for de-escalation.
In late September, Israel ramped up its airstrikes on Beirut and southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah’s weapons sites. These strikes resulted in hundreds of deaths. As expected, on October 1, Israel launched a ground invasion, described as “limited, localized, and targeted” operations. The stated goal: to dismantle Hezbollah’s infrastructure, which Israel claims poses an “immediate threat” to northern Israeli communities.
The Israeli army aims to push Hezbollah north of the Litani River, roughly 18 miles from the Israeli-Lebanese border, in line with UNSC Resolution 1701. On the same day, UNIFIL, the UN peacekeeping force, warned that any Israeli incursion into Lebanon violates Lebanese sovereignty and is a breach of the resolution. This is Israel’s first invasion of Lebanon since 2006, and heavy fighting between Israeli forces and Hezbollah has erupted across the region.
Meanwhile, U.S. officials, on September 30, indicated they believed Israel’s invasion would remain limited in scope. Israeli officials have assured Washington that there are no plans for a prolonged occupation of southern Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on the same day, warned Iran to stay out of the conflict, stating, “There is nowhere we will not go to protect our people and protect our country.”
The U.S. announced that it would be sending additional forces to the Middle East, increasing the 40,000 already stationed in the region in support of Israel. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin confirmed that both he and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant agreed on the necessity of destroying Hezbollah’s “attack infrastructure” along the border.
Hezbollah, with its vast network of tunnels, bunkers, and military positions just across Israel’s northern frontier, remains entrenched. According to Lebanese officials, more than 1,000 people have been killed in the past two weeks, while nearly a million people are now displaced. On September 30, U.S. President Joe Biden called for an immediate ceasefire.
Najib Mikati, Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister, has called this one of the most dangerous moments in the country’s history, urging the United Nations to provide emergency aid to the displaced. “We urgently call for more aid to reinforce our efforts to provide basic support to civilians,” Mikati said in meetings with UN representatives.
The global response has been nearly unanimous, calling for an end to the violence and warning of the dangers of a regional conflagration. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been particularly outspoken, claiming that Israel’s ambitions go beyond Lebanon and Gaza. On October 1, he stated that Israel could “set its sights” on Turkey next. Erdogan criticized the international community for not stopping Netanyahu’s actions and vowed that Turkey would stand firm against Israeli aggression. He warned that Israel’s actions could spread beyond the region.
Turkey’s Foreign Ministry called Israel’s ground incursion into southern Lebanon an “unlawful invasion attempt” and demanded an immediate halt to the offensive. It warned that the situation jeopardizes the security and stability of not just the region but the world, raising concerns about migration and extremism. The ministry’s statement called on the UN Security Council to take action, warning that countries providing support to Israel will also be affected. “Every crime committed by Israel is also a blow to international law and the UN Charter,” the statement said.
Other nations have also expressed concern. Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry on October 1 condemned Israel’s escalation in Lebanon, stating that it risks “inflaming the entire region” and could lead to “dire security and humanitarian consequences.” Shoukry reiterated Egypt’s opposition to any changes to the status quo that violate Lebanon’s sovereignty.
The UAE voiced “deep concern” about the escalating conflict, reaffirming its position favoring Lebanon’s national sovereignty. Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the UAE’s president, announced a $100 million relief package to help the displaced Lebanese. Qatar, too, called for international unity, with Sultan bin Saad bin Sultan Al Muraikhi, the country’s top diplomat, urging support for Lebanon’s territorial integrity. “Standing with the brotherly people of Lebanon is not just a moral duty but an imperative necessity,” he said.
Russia warned that “the geography of hostilities is expanding,” adding to the region’s destabilization. NATO’s new Secretary General, Mark Rutte, expressed his hope for an end to the fighting as soon as possible. Meanwhile, Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni emphasized the importance of a regional de-escalation, stressing that civilian protection remains the priority and ensuring the safety of Italy’s UNIFIL contingent.
On September 27, Israeli airstrikes killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, along with an Iranian Revolutionary Guard deputy commander, Brigadier General Ali Nilforoushan. Nasrallah, who had led Hezbollah for 32 years, was deeply connected to the Iranian leadership and was a crucial figure in Lebanon’s political and military landscape. His death marks a significant escalation in the conflict and could spark further regional unrest.
Nasrallah’s killing, though a blow to Hezbollah, is unlikely to destroy the group. Hezbollah has deep societal and ideological roots in Lebanon, and its powerful backer, Iran, will ensure its continued resilience. The group has long played a significant role in the regional “axis of resistance,” which includes Iran and other pro-Iranian factions.
In Gaza, fighting continues. As of September 30, over 41,595 Palestinians have died, with more than 96,092 injured. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas recently told the UN that Gaza has been “almost destroyed” by Israel’s retaliatory strikes, describing the territory as “no longer fit for life.”
Despite international pressure, Israel has shown little inclination to accept a ceasefire. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz reiterated that Hezbollah must be disarmed and pushed north of the Litani River for peace to be restored.
As the conflict grinds on, what comes next? Israel’s ground invasion of southern Lebanon is undoubtedly a severe challenge for both Hezbollah and Israel. While Israel may score tactical victories, Hezbollah’s deep-rooted support in Lebanon makes it impossible to eliminate the group. Iran will continue to back Hezbollah in its fight against Israel, ensuring the group’s survival.
The United States, firmly behind Israel, remains wary of the broader implications of the conflict. Iran, while issuing threats, has so far exercised restraint, likely calculating that a full-scale war with Israel is not in its best interests. Instead, Iran is likely to employ Hezbollah and other proxies to wage a long-term war of attrition against Israel.
The potential for a wider regional war remains, but for now, a low-intensity conflict seems more probable. Israel may find itself drained by the prolonged fighting, while Hezbollah will remain a formidable adversary. Over time, as Israeli casualties mount, calls for a more diplomatic solution may gain strength. Yet, for the moment, the prospect of a two-state solution that could bring lasting peace to the region seems distant.
The conflict is entering a new phase, marked by escalating violence, diplomatic posturing, and global anxieties. The coming months will test the resilience of all involved while the human cost continues to climb. In the end, the world may once again be left to reckon with the devastating consequences of an increasingly endless conflict.
Sohail Mahmood is an independent political analyst focused on global politics, U.S. foreign policy, governance, and the politics of South and West Asia.