The Strait of Malacca has allowed China to grow astronomically over the past few decades. However, it is also Beijing’s Achilles’ heel.

For China, the Strait of Malacca is nothing less than a lifeline. This narrow, strategic passage—just 40 miles wide at its narrowest point—connects the Indian and Pacific Oceans, linking East and West. The importance of this waterway is hard to overstate. It’s among the world’s busiest shipping routes, with nearly 40% of global trade passing through. Flanked by Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia, these littoral states economically thrive on the relentless flow of goods, a reality most visible in the bustling Singapore Port at the Strait’s southern edge.

But what makes this narrow corridor so crucial is also its greatest vulnerability. For nations reliant on it, this chokepoint could become a trap. Blockades have previously strangled regions dependent on this passage for vital supplies during times of conflict. In the 21st century, it’s China that stands to lose the most from a similar disruption.

China, the world’s second-largest economy, relies on the Malacca Strait for a staggering 60% of its annual imports. Even more vital is the fact that 80% of its oil flows through this route from the Middle East. The prospect of a blockade here is nothing short of a nightmare for Beijing. While piracy in the Strait is a low-grade irritant, the real threat is geopolitical—a blockade that could be China’s Achilles’ heel.

Talk of such a blockade is not purely hypothetical. The tense China-Taiwan situation fuels these fears. Chinese President Xi Jinping has declared that unification with Taiwan is inevitable, while some U.S. officials believe the People’s Liberation Army could be ready to act as early as 2027. In such a scenario, Taiwan’s biggest backer, the United States, might consider a naval blockade, the so-called “Malacca Dilemma,” to cut off China’s energy imports.

In 2022, reports surfaced suggesting the U.S. was already evaluating the feasibility of such a blockade if tensions escalated. But America is not the only power interested in countering China’s influence. India, with its “Act East” policy, aims to deepen ties with East Asia as a strategic counterweight to China’s reach.

Yet, the role of Southeast Asia, especially the littoral states of Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, should not be overlooked. Without their cooperation, any attempt to close the Strait would be challenging. Their economies benefit immensely from this artery of global commerce, and a blockade would spell economic disaster. Moreover, these nations are unlikely to sit idle as foreign warships enter their waters, effectively turning their backyard into a battlefield.

Beijing, acutely aware of its vulnerability, has taken precautionary steps over the past decade. To hedge against reliance on the Malacca Strait, China has expanded its blue-water navy and developed land-based transport routes, such as the Myanmar oil and gas pipelines. Additionally, by purchasing more oil from Russia, transported via land routes, China reduces its dependence on U.S.-allied Gulf countries. The Chinese Communist Party has long recognized that in a crisis, access to energy supplies could be the difference between stability and calamity.

With its economic and military growth, China is positioned to be the United States’ principal rival, a challenge Washington hasn’t faced since the Cold War. For some, confrontation feels inevitable—a question of when, not if. But a blockade would be expensive and economically damaging, even for the United States.

China’s Southeast Asian neighbors and the U.S. itself benefit from Chinese imports and affordable labor. A conflict that blocks the Strait would disrupt supply chains globally, potentially triggering a worldwide economic downturn. The repercussions would not only be felt in China but across the globe, with fingers pointing at Washington for the fallout.

Given the high stakes, one might assume Beijing could rest easy, but history says otherwise. The United States has been the world’s preeminent power for over a century. Washington won’t shy away from a conflict with China or a blockade of the Malacca Strait if it means reaffirming its global dominance.

China may not yet be a superpower on par with the United States, but its global reach is undeniable. If it poses a serious threat to U.S. supremacy, Washington may act swiftly—whatever the cost—to eliminate that threat when a South China Sea conflict erupts.