During his 2024 presidential campaign and throughout his subsequent return to office, President Donald Trump repeatedly insisted that he could end the Russia–Ukraine war within 24 hours of taking office. He made the claim not as a rhetorical flourish but as a serious assertion, delivered in interviews and speeches that emphasized his personal negotiating prowess and his relationships with the leaders involved.

By early 2025, shortly after his inauguration, analysts noted that the conflict showed no signs of resolution, nearly 100 days into his administration. Now, roughly a year into Trump’s second term, the war—approaching its fourth year since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022—continues with active fighting, heavy casualties, and stalled diplomacy. The record is clear: the promise of rapid resolution has not materialized.

Recent Russian offensives underscore just how unresolved the conflict remains. On January 24, Russian forces launched a large-scale assault on Kyiv and Kharkiv, deploying hundreds of drones and missiles against critical energy infrastructure. At least one person was killed, and dozens were injured. The strikes disrupted heating, electricity, and water supplies for more than 800,000 residents in Kyiv during sub-zero temperatures, intensifying civilian suffering during what has been the harshest winter since the invasion began. Similar attacks continued overnight into January 25, hitting multiple regions and damaging medical facilities, with at least 30 people wounded in Kharkiv alone. These assaults fit a broader pattern: systematic Russian targeting of Ukraine’s energy grid, which has been degraded by an estimated 60 to 70 percent since the fall of 2025, with projected repair costs ranging from $64 to $70 billion.

On the battlefield, however, there is little evidence of decisive momentum in either direction. Frontline assessments show Russian advances limited to marginal gains in parts of Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts. Moscow has claimed the capture of villages such as Starytsya in Kharkiv, but Ukrainian forces have largely held their defensive lines while carrying out counterstrikes. These have included sustained drone attacks on Russian oil depots and military installations. In recent weeks alone, Ukrainian drones have struck refineries and infrastructure in regions such as Krasnodar Krai and Belgorod Oblast. Casualty figures continue to climb, with cumulative estimates suggesting roughly 1.1 million Russian and 400,000 Ukrainian losses to date. The scale of these numbers reflects a war that remains deeply entrenched rather than one moving toward de-escalation.

The Trump administration has pointed to U.S.-facilitated diplomacy as evidence of progress, yet these efforts have fallen short of ending the fighting. Trilateral talks held in Abu Dhabi on January 23–24 brought together U.S., Ukrainian, and Russian representatives to discuss security guarantees and potential parameters for ending the war. These meetings followed consultations between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. envoys, including Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. Ukrainian officials described the talks as “constructive,” with the possibility of follow-up discussions. Even so, the negotiations coincided with renewed Russian strikes. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha publicly warned that such attacks undermined the credibility of the process. No peace agreement emerged, and Russia continued to press maximalist demands, including Ukrainian withdrawal from the Donbas and adherence to the so-called “Anchorage formula” outlined at a 2025 U.S.–Russia summit.

Beyond the immediate failures of negotiation lie deeper structural obstacles. While there have been suggestions that Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky may agree on as much as 90 to 95 percent of a hypothetical peace framework, the territorial question remains immovable. Russia continues to insist on permanent control over annexed regions, including Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson. Kremlin officials frame these demands as addressing the conflict’s “root causes,” while Kyiv remains focused on securing additional air-defense capabilities. Zelenskyy’s repeated calls for U.S.-supplied PAC-3 interceptors underscore Ukraine’s priority: survival under continued bombardment. The fact that attacks persist even during active talks illustrates how little diplomacy has constrained kinetic operations.

Taken together, these realities stand in stark contrast to the timeline implied by Trump’s 24-hour pledge. A year into his presidency, the war grinds on with no clear end in sight. Russia’s refusal to compromise on territory, the resilience of Ukrainian defenses, and the difficulty of enforcing ceasefires amid constant strikes all help explain why.

While Washington has facilitated dialogue, the absence of a comprehensive agreement—and the persistence of large-scale violence—amounts to a simple conclusion. Trump’s promise to end the war swiftly was not merely ambitious; it has proven, so far, unattainable.