The January attack by M23 rebels killing 14 South African peacekeepers in the eastern DRC brought a conflict which has been ongoing for the better part of 30 years back into the headlines. Led by the M23 movement, identified by the U.S., France and the United Nations as supported by the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF), the recent invasion has seen the displacement of over 3 million and over 3,000 killed, with Rwanda seizing vast territory including the provincial capitals Goma and Bukavu, in what Reuter’s has called “a tinderbox ready to explode.”

Although the invasion’s stated aim has been protecting Tutsi minority groups, the M23 have made their ambitions to march on Kinshasa clear. Rwandan President Kagame expressed his support while denying the RDF presence, dismissing the potential for international sanctions, and referring to mineral wealth plundering accusations as “an imaginary problem.”

This issue became starkly real when the M23 rebel group seized control of Rubaya in North Kivu, home to the world’s largest coltan mine. This mine accounts for at least 15%—and likely more—of the global supply of coltan, a critical metal for electronics and military applications. According to UN estimates, M23-controlled coltan production stands at approximately 120 tons per month. With coltan trading at $228,000 per ton, the group generates around $800,000 monthly in taxes alone. The extracted minerals are reportedly mixed with Rwandan coltan before export, leading experts to call it “the greatest contamination ever recorded of mineral supply chains in the Great Lakes region.” This contamination has had a devastating impact on artisanal coltan miners and the General Cobalt Enterprise (EGC), the entity mandated to regulate coltan trade. As a result, efforts to improve supply chain transparency and human rights protections in the region have been severely undermined.

Kinshasa has identified a strategic partnership with Washington as the most effective way to end the conflict. On the table is a deal that would offer the United States preferential access to the world’s most coveted minerals, and according to a letter sent by Kinshasa to President Donald Trump, “presenting a unique opportunity for the U.S. to establish a reliable and exclusive supply chain.”

The letter follows the diplomatic row between Ukrainian President Voldomyr Zelensky and President Trump, which scuttled a mineral agreement between the United States and Ukraine. Although American and Ukrainian representatives will reportedly meet soon to restart peace talks, disagreements over access to critical minerals remain.

Relationship building with the DRC should instead serve as a strategic alternative to securing U.S. supply chains, leveraging the Lobito corridor export route to the Atlantic to deliver a steady and secure stream of critical minerals while supporting the development of a regional industrialisation process with sustainable local community impact.

A high-level meeting between Kinshasa and Washington, originally scheduled for next week to negotiate a deal, has been postponed. The agreement would have granted Washington immediate access to critical minerals—such as coltan, cobalt, copper, gold, tungsten, tantalum, and tin—vital for global supply chains. It also included U.S. export rights and the establishment of a strategic mineral stockpile designated for American use, including in the defense sector. Despite the delay, discussions on potential private sector cooperation must continue.

Importantly, such a deal would diversify the source of Washington’s access to strategic resources, enhancing supply chain resilience. All of this stands firmly in support of the Unleashing American Energy Executive Order, signed on Trump’s first day in office, which seeks to, “establish our position as the leading producer and processor of non-fuel minerals, including rare earth minerals.”

Kinshasa has made clear its ambition to provide a steady stream of critical minerals, cooperating extensively with the private sector to ensure local beneficiation opportunities. In 2022, the DRC government provided $3.5 million to Buenassa, an integrated metals trading start-up, to conduct a now completed scoping study for the construction of the first hydrometallurgical copper and cobalt refinery. This is projected to produce 120,000 tons of LME grade copper cathode and 20,000 tons battery grade cobalt sulphate by 2028.

The funding was an integral part of Kinshasa’s initiative to enhance domestic industry’s cooperation with foreign allies, with Buenassa engaging in discussions with the U.S. State Department, the U.S. Department of Defence, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, and other relevant U.S. agencies to develop U.S.-oriented supply chains through the Lobito Corridor.

From a geopolitical perspective, Washington lacks a strong foothold in Central Africa, a region where Beijing has been making significant inroads controlling extraction and refining, and with that, the market for rare earth elements. In 2023, Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative invested almost $22 billion across the continent, with nearly half of the investment focused on critical minerals. In comparison, Washington invested $7.4 billion in Africa, with critical mineral investments under $300 million. Developing this relationship with the DRC would provide the U.S. with a unique opportunity to turn the tables on this equation in a way it has thus far not been able to, boosting local production through public-private partnerships in the DRC and ensuring a win-win economic model for both nations.

What Kinshasa requires in the immediate term are American security guarantees, as well as training and equipment to put a decisive end to the conflict, alongside targeted economic sanctions on Kigali, an American ally. Although U.S. military aid to Rwanda has been relatively limited, relations should be in accordance with goals set in the U.S. Integrated Country Strategy for Rwanda, to “advance regional peace and security.”

Despite Kagame downplaying the impact of sanctions, they can prove useful if applied in a targeted manner. And while sanctions have been used in a limited capacity in the conflict thus far (the U.S. recently sanctioned James Kabarebe, Rwanda’s state minister for foreign affairs), the use of these must be significantly expanded. The European Union has been moving quickly, with sanctions against nine individuals and one Rwanda entity on the table. Recently, pressure has been increasing for the EU to suspend its memorandum of understanding with Rwanda on mineral purchases.

Acceding to Kinshasa’s request to forge a deal that would see Washington playing a role in bringing the conflict to an end in exchange for critical mineral access is in Washington’s best interest. Aside from the immediate economic benefit, and geopolitical leverage, securing such a deal would reaffirm the strength of Trump’s transactional approach to international politics, which has made him a singular, albeit disruptive, force on the global stage. With the world watching, he has the opportunity to deliver a historic peace while empowering American strategic industry for years to come.