Despite U.S. President Joe Biden’s stern warning during his October visit to Israel last year, Iran remains undeterred in its threats to attack the Jewish state. This became clear on April 15, when Iran launched a barrage of drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles toward Israel.

Biden’s visit on October 18 followed the deadly October 7 incursion by Hamas terrorists, who crossed into Israel, killing 1,200 people and kidnapping 250 others. Since then, Israel has been embroiled in a multi-front war, battling Iranian proxies in Gaza (Hamas and Islamic Jihad), Lebanon (Hezbollah), and Yemen (Houthis).

The latest Iranian threat comes in the wake of the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran—a move widely attributed to Israel, though the Jewish state has not officially acknowledged its involvement. Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy based in Beirut, has also vowed to attack Israel, escalating the threat. Just hours before Haniyeh’s assassination, Israel targeted Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah’s second-in-command.

In response to the growing tensions, the United States has bolstered its military presence in the Middle East. On Sunday, the Pentagon announced that General Lloyd Austin had deployed the USS Georgia, a guided-missile submarine, to the region. Additionally, the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, equipped with F-35C fighter jets, was ordered to expedite its journey to the Middle East. This public display of military might is intended to deter Iran and Hezbollah, yet the Iranian regime continues to threaten Israel.

As the BBC noted, the perceived danger has already led several airlines to cancel flights to airports in the region.

The complexities of the Middle East often elude casual observers. The region is predominantly divided between Sunni and Shi’ite Muslims, whose historical enmity stretches back centuries. The conflict with Israel is but a chapter in this ongoing struggle between the two sects. Iran’s Shi’ite leaders are driven by a vision of regional and global domination. By destabilizing Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, and Gaza, Iran has successfully extended its influence across the Middle East, advancing its hegemonic ambitions.

This expansionist agenda is not confined to the Middle East. Iranian influence is spreading across the Sahel in Africa, a development that could ignite a new, large-scale conflict on the continent, fueled by Iranian support and radical Islamist ideology.

Yet, resistance to Iranian domination is emerging. In Iraq, calls for the establishment of a Sunni-ruled region have gained traction, led by Sunni politician Sheikh Thaer al-Bayati, secretary-general of the Arab Tribal Council and founder of the Iraqi Salvation Front. Unsurprisingly, this initiative has been met with opposition from politicians allied with Shi’ite forces and the Turkish-backed Muslim Brotherhood movement. Iran opposes the creation of a Sunni region in Iraq, as it aims to control the entire country. Turkey, too, rejects this idea, fearing that the Syrian Kurds might join forces with the Kurdistan region to form a Kurdish state—a prospect that could destabilize Turkey’s own majority-Kurdish southern region.

Understanding the region’s intricate dynamics and the deep-seated animosities among its peoples is crucial to grasping why the Middle East is perpetually engulfed in conflict. It also sheds light on why Iran remains unshaken by U.S. threats. Part of the reason lies in Tehran’s perception that American threats are no longer backed by decisive action, reflecting a broader reluctance to engage in military conflict.

More fundamentally, Iran views itself as a rising power, emboldened to strike whenever and wherever it chooses. This confidence is underscored by recent developments within Iran itself. The resignation of Mohammad Javad Zarif, the former foreign minister and key negotiator of the 2015 nuclear pact, is telling. Zarif stepped down from his role as vice president following the election of reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian, who assumed office after the late President Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash.

Despite domestic unrest and the strategic military maneuvers by the United States, Iran remains focused on consolidating its power. Its aim is clear: to strike Israel, both directly and through its proxies.

The erosion of American deterrence in the Middle East is evident. The upcoming November presidential election presents an opportunity for a new American president to restore that deterrence and curb Iran’s ambitions, safeguarding both regional stability and the security of America’s allies.